|
Hi, Bill.
On pages 45-46 of The Complete Handicapper, Jim Quinn states, "[T]he paired-figure patterns do not require identical speed figures, but figures within a length of one another. The figures will span within two, occasionally three, points of one another."
I do not know what an ASR point equals. (I also do not know what a TrackMaster SR point equals either, despite considerable research.) I know RDSS uses 8.3 feet for a length and since almost everything else in the program is velocity adjusted, I suspect that the ASRs are velocity adjusted too. It's one of those things that our friend is reluctant to talk about, but we do know that the faster a horse runs, the more lengths he covers in an increment of time. None of this, however, is answering your questions.
When I'm looking at the ASRs, I'm mentally using a Beyer-scale approximation, i.e. about 2 points per length in a route, about 2 1/2 points per length in a sprint. I may be completely wrong about that but I made my own speed figures for a time and used the Beyer scale as my starting point, so it's seared into my brain.
What I saw with Being There was paired tops framed in a new form cycle after returning from a layoff. Are they lifetime tops? I couldn't be sure but they're at least two points (one length, two lengths?) faster than anything else in his last ten races and more than that in most of those races. I didn't expect the older gelding to run another 84 and bet away from him successfully.
As far as fluctuations of a point or two from race to race, I don't know how much a player can read into that. Setting aside form, a point difference might be due to rounding in the tenths or even hundredths. (I adjusted my speed figures with Trakus data and the distance delta of the trip might move the needle two or three points.) It would be helpful if I knew exactly what an ASR point represented, but I don't so I'm flying by the seat of pants on this.
Here's another example, but this one represents the paired figures below the lifetime top. (Quinn, pg 46.) I thought "Justification" might have another good effort in him and he did, unfortunately. I bet him and the Place horse, that he caught at the wire and beat a neck. He was at even money while the Place horse was 8-1. Perhaps a two-point difference is significant, or marginally so.
|