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Derby Analysis so far
In an earlier post I said something about not using fast two year old times when considering horses for the Derby. I said that because in past Derbys I'd given too much credit to a fast 2 YO time that had not been repeated in the current Derby year.
Last December we had the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity with 3 on the wire, with Dortmund out heading Firing Line, who nosed out Mr. Z in a 140.86 8.5 furlong race. A very interesting race in that it showed that Dortmund could press a fast pace and gain against it. He was 3rd at the first three calls, between 2.5 and 1.5 lengths back. Since then he has had it all his own way. Horses only run as fast as they need to in order to win, so don't penalize or mischaracterize Dortmund's running style just because he whipped easier. Firing Line came back at Sunland on March 22 to run a 147.39 track record 9 furlong race which would have been a 141.04 at 8.5 furlongs (I averaged the mile and 9 F times since he was on the lead almost all the way.)
Both Firing Line and Dortmund pressed in the Robt B Lewis stakes with Dortmund again winning by a head in 142.20. So along with American Pharoah all three can press just in case there is an absolute freak on the lead in the Derby.
The prelim race that looked the best to me was the Grade 2 San Felipe run on March 7th. Dortmund beat Prospect Park (not in Derby) and Bolo.
Using The Hat's Marathon Method the best mile is FL's 134.34, then Mr Z at 134.36, then Dortmunds 134.44, then FL's 134.70, then Dortmund at 135.51, then Bolo at 135.53, then American Pharoah at 135.94. After AP there is a full one second gap to Carpe Diem at 136.94. With the exception of Mr. Z, the top ten miles are split between Dortmund, Firing Line and AP
Mr. Z could be a pace setter, but only ran better when the internal times of races early this year got much slower. In the Arkansas Derby, the only fast pace against which it raced since December he backed up significantly vs. AP. I think he can be in the top 4, but not a winner.
By the Marathon method I would take Firing Line, and Bolo and box Dortmund and AP in a 4 way box. Bolo, Carpe Diem, Far Right and International Star can all close in case the EP's resort to being E's exclusively.
The Other Way:
Picking the pace of the race and matching the horses using the Hat's 2 for 1 energy gain/loss you can use either of FL's 12/20 or 3/22 lines and I get:
I projected to 9 furlong mark:
Firing Line (both lines make him a winner) 147.39 and 147.72
Dortmund - 148.26
Bolo - 148.40
American Pharoah as an SP not caught up in the pace - 148.52
Carpe Diem - 149.77 and 150.00
Far Right - 150.12
International Star - 150.22
Frosted - 150.31
and interestingly American Pharoah if an EP - 151.32
I applied the 2 for 1 adjustments to E and EP and the P's but I also let the P's run as if not affected by the pace. No adjustment for the SP's or S's. Depending on how much some or all of the 3 YOs improve between starts or regress, the top 4 are pretty consistent, IMHO
Now I gotta find a price in the Oaks to make some real $.
Cheers,
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