Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Marathon Method update for Derby and other long races

Bill Lyster · 04-21-2015, 07:39 PM

Marathon Race Spot Play (copied from the original Hat Check post)

"For this Spot Play we have FOUR keys to work with.

1) We are going to work TODAY’S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today’s virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp’s which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and match up the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

**Important**

I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re-reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.

Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who is ALSO closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race."

In a couple of days I will go through this year's Derby Horses and hopefully exhibit how this is done.

04-21-2015, 07:39 PM	#9
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Refresher info on the Marathon method Marathon Race Spot Play (copied from the original Hat Check post) "For this Spot Play we have FOUR keys to work with. 1) We are going to work TODAY’S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today’s virtual distance. Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please. 2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance. For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f. For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1. 3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp’s which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE. 4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and match up the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f. THAT is the horse we will bet. Important I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re-reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed. Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who is ALSO closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race." In a couple of days I will go through this year's Derby Horses and hopefully exhibit how this is done.