[Bill Lyster]

I read this am that none of the Illinois Derby top 3 were headed for the Derby, but they would have been far down the list of mile times as the leader at the mile in that race ran 138.00. So I did not include any of those horses on this list.

This info is shown in two parts because of file size restrictions of this website. The top set of info, which ends with Firing Line's 2/7 race, is sorted by position at the 1/4 mile call, so you can get an idea of who might be leading and at what time. The top set of info also includes, with one exception, the top 15 mile times as extracted from the result charts and the beaten lengths shown.

Only 4 horses in the last 24 Derbys have been farther back than 4.5 lengths at the mile call and only 2 have been 4th or worse at the 9 furlong mark in the derby. All others were either 1st, 2nd or 3rd, usually no more than 2 lengths behind at the stretch call of the Derby. The largest leads overcome at the mile call were 9L, 7.75L and 5L by Grindstone, Sea Hero and Lil Tee; the largest leads overcome at the stretch call was 3.5L by Grindstone (Again, all of this in the last 24 Derbys).

On the right of the attachment I have hi-lighted what could be the pace of the Derby and the last column shows the time from the six furlong mark to the 9 furlong mark (with races at 8.5 calculated by adding 6.4 seconds to the finish time). Horses that have not run near the projected pace that are slower closers than the ones on the lead and will have to show significant improvement in this 3 furlong closing time to be competitive (assuming that there is not a killer pace duel.) See the red mark at the right of Materiality and Upstart.

You should note that the race with the fastest mile time was the Grade 1 run at Los Alamitos last December. NONE of those 2 year olds have matched or bettered that time and my personal prejudice is to not consider 2 year old times unless they are repeated.

On the left side of the data I hi-lighted horses that were either 1st or 2nd in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race. I also Hi-lighted Mr Z, who was 3rd by a head at Los Alamitos, but notice that his times and BL really have not come close while racing as a 3 YO.

The first or top half of the data are my win contenders, but notice how many of the top spots are occupied by the same few horses - Dortmund, Firing LIne, Carpe Diem. American Pharoah probably improved the most in its last two races.

The hi-lighted blue info on the far right shows which horses had faster 9 furlong times (actual or adjusted) than mile times. My interpretation (not proven by any stats) is that this could indicate a horse with likely sustained ability. It does not hurt to notice that American Pharoah ran one of the faster 6 furlong times, 110.74 yet improved from the 10th best mile time to the 7th best 9 furlong time - the 37.78 3 furlong closing time is also one of the top times in that category.

Have some fun thinking about this for the next 2+ weeks.