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This could be a tough year to comparatively handicap the Derby. It seems like the only track giving up normally run times is Santa Anita and possibly Tampa Bay. (Both of the GP races had horrible 3rd fraction splits and one of those races went 111.xx to 6F mark and then walked home.) I cannot get enthused about horses winning off 112, 113, 114 interior fractions when the Derby has a plethora of early speed types and horses that cruise vs faster fractions and still close. Hopefully this weeks Derby will be run on a fast track and will produce faster horses.
Might not be too big of a price if the West Coast form holds in Kentucky.
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