[Mark]

For the gentleman you reference, I take my hat off to him. He was willing to invest 3 years of this life to track something in an objective manner. However, I don't believe there is a useful average based on any kind of Pars. Maybe 30 -40 years ago. What determines good mutuels today is outright PUBLIC brainfart or deviations from the average. Averages get you $6.00 or less horses and I have no interest in that.
In any handful of claiming races at say 6f, there will be slow 1st fractions, moderate 1st fractions and fast 1st fractions because each race is made up of different horses with differing amounts of early speed. The 1st fraction is truly dependent upon the horses in that race. A field loaded with n-t-l Early horses will run a hell of a lot faster on the same day as a field that is paceless.(I made pars 30 years ago and assume same distances, surfaces and relative class) In reality, you end up penalizing fast horses and making slow horses faster.
I am a Bradshaw Match Up handicapper the last 4 years. I don't adjust races, I handicap RAW. I have some ideas I have shared with Ted that I want to explore but as a rule I will only use adjustments in Turf races with numerous shippers. Dirt and Poly racing is very straight forward and if you can't find a line on a horse that makes him competitive from the 10 provided, than most likely he doesn't belong in the race. One thing is absolutely clear fast horses win races and only lose when they are forced to run "too fast too early".