Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
I feel too much info, as all the info is there, for some that may be great, but for me, way too much to comphrend with this mind, sorry.
Would you please comment about your important Model making and why and what info do you leave to others to gather for you ???
Thank you
Patrick
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I think it was in the movie “Platoon” where there was a line that went something like this, “excuses are like a—holes, everybody’s got one.” You are throwing out a question for everyone to answer, who chooses to answer. Therefore, like the line from the movie, what you are going to get is an opinion and “opinions are like a—holes, everybody’s got one.” YOUR problem is, you are going to get several different opinions and I don’t know if that is going to clear things up for you. It may even serve to confuse you further.
Tom and Houndog have given you some nice responses. I will comment on one thing “tom” mentioned and that is the term KISS. Not being sure if you know what that means, it stands for Keep It Simple Stupid! Nothing derogatory intended. I would say that is good advice. To begin with, keep it as simple as possible. As time goes by and you become more familiar with what you are doing, expand on it if you want to.
Let me talk about my post that you commented on. Let’s just start at the beginning. You can’t have the winner of the first race in your model (unless you were just “winging it”) because you had no previous information to look at. After that race, you have the results of ONE RACE ONLY to look at. Do you think that information is solid enough to base your next wager on? I would say “no”, so I would be looking for the results of a few races before I would dive in. What you are looking for is consistency in your model(s). Some piece(s) of information that you feel you can rely on. This is based on YOUR work, nobody else’s. Now, as to the ROI I showed in my post, if I hadn’t started with the very first race in that scenario I posted, NO, I would not have achieved the total ROI shown. I would have picked it up a few races after the start. That may have resulted in a little lower or a little higher ROI, but the concept is still valid.
Let’s take a non-horse racing example. Let’s take baseball. You see that a pitcher is 15-0. You think to yourself, ”boy, I could have won a lot of money on that guy if I had just been betting on him”. This is true, but when he was 0-0 you didn’t know he would be 15-0. So, at what point would you have started betting on him? At 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 5-0,10-0 what? You see, it’s an individual decision at what point you begin to wager. It’s all up to YOU, no one else.
Ok, there are “decision MODELS” and “track PROFILES”. They’re two different things. I’ll start with track profiles. Houndog already gave you the answer as to how to get it. The only thing different about what Houndog told you and what I would tell you, is that I would break these track profiles down by distance, surface, AND males, females and race restrictions. In the case of maidens, I would separate maiden claimers from maiden special weights in place of race restriction. This is an individual choice, in the end YOU have to do it the way YOU feel is best for YOU. At any rate, for the previously mentioned reason, my track profiles may be different from Houndog’s, but if we were doing it the exact same way they would be exactly the same. Why? Because it is NOT based on our individual work, it is based on the how the winner ran its’ race.
“Decision models” are the results of the winner of the race BASE ON YOUR WORK, nobody else’s. Both tom and Houndog already talked about this. After a race you handicapped is over, you record ALL or A FEW (whatever you are comfortable with) of the factors you get from RDSS (if that is what you are using) on a piece of paper (in some orderly fashion) or a spreadsheet, or whatever you want to use and record the factors you are going to keep track of. Now the only suggestion I am going to make at this point, is that you keep your “decision models” the same way you are keeping your “track profiles”.
One last thing to write down or record in whatever way you are going to do it, keep records of all your bets, it is from these records that you will find YOUR OWN ROI. Keep different types of bets separate from each other. In this way, you will learn which types of bets are most profitable for you.
Just remember, most people have their own individual ways of approaching all of this. Read them all, read all that you can from any source of the subject, then make a decision about how YOU are going to make YOURS and run with it. Because one person does things one way and another person does it another way doesn’t mean one is right and the other is wrong. If it works FOR YOU that’s all that matters.
I hope I haven’t mis-stated anything and I wish you the best for your endeavors.