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#12 to WIN and PLACE.
21.5 / 44.4 / 109.2 (TM adjusted)
OTE
Contenders - 1, 8, 10, 12
10 is the M/L favorite and looks formidable. My projected pace line is from his last race, so no problem there. Runs on or near lead, loves to sprint at FG, Stidham is excellent trainer and now connections have Florent Geroux riding. Bounce possibility but otherwise thoroughly legitimate.
1 also likes to lead or stay near pace. Bounce possibility with 1 as well, but bigger concern is pace, as he may be a stride slow.
Both 8 and 12 run late. If this was any track other than FG, I wouldn't consider them, but FG has a long stretch run and that gives sustained runners more time to wind up. Both have run in graded stakes this year, so there's some class. 8 made a big move late in last race, losing by less than a length to 12 and 10. My concern is that he comes from another zip code and is usually the last horse in the field at the first call.
That brings me to my pick, 12. Raced in NY earlier this year, claimed at Saratoga, claimed again off the turf at Kentucky Downs and promptly wins first asking at FG, beating 10, 8, 2, 5, and 6. Can he hold 10 and 8 again? I think so. Just wish the odds were higher. :-)
mick
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