[Bill Lyster]

As advertised, lots of speed.

The 1 has broken 4th and 3rd, the 3 has pressed a little off lead then faded has broken 7-2-5, the 5 has broken 1-2-1-3-1 can press closely or as in its last start, at or about todays pace, can drop back to 4th a couple off. the 7 has the best time at this distance, has broken 3-2, appears to need an open lead.

The 4 and 6 are slow.

I see the 1, 7, 3 and 6 (in that order) trying for the lead which could end up being 21.4 or 22.0. This could pressure the 7 who needs lead, so I would discount the 44.2 he ran in last to about 44.4. Still I think 7 drives this boat. His field best turn time of 22.1 (vs 22.7 [10ths] by the 3, even compromised by an earlier first fraction, probably toasts the rest of the early contingent.

The 5 has won from 4th (albeit from a turf sprint, but it was his 1st serious off pace effort and the time from that race projects to 121.0 (I know grass vs dirt, but it is WII. 4th would be perfect behind 3 or so earlies. The 5 was on or made the lead in the BC race vs the 1 while closely pressing. I see the last race as an experiment in pressing

The 2 has shown a 7-5-2-1 move against 21.4-44.4-57.0 and is a definite threat here.

I matched the 2 and 5 but I applied the pressing positions and lengths back from the turf sprint to todays expected fractions. the 5 will be closer to the lead than the 2 and is my pick.

The 5, Souper Colossal, to win.