|
Race 6, with the 1 scratched:
The 3 probably repeats as the pace setter, but has been giving it up & appears to need an open lead to win; the 2 has won longer races on the lead but its best sprints are pressing. The 5 has raced only on the lead and at paces slower than today, but the 5 YO is undefeated. Could be a presser, but if he is E he should pressure the 3. The 4 is SLOW. The 6 is a Grade 3 winner last out and has pressed and won at 2nd calls of 45.2 and 45.1 - today should be faster. The 7 is largely unknown, but is 1/1 at the distance and at GP last winter, looked like the last was a needed race and has run faster on poly - could be a surprise if speed fails or make a nice #2 spot on the exacta ticket. The 8 beat the 3 handily last out.
My picks are 8 and 2 to win with an eye on the 7's odds
race 7, with the 7 scratched:
who excels at this distance. Well the 1 is 5/12 wins; 8/12 1st or 2nd; the 2 has 3/5 wins at this distance and is 2/2 at GP; the 3 has 4/5 wins and 5/5 1st or 2nd; the 6 has 5/6 wins; the 12 has 2/6 wins and 6/10 1st or 2nd.
The E horses are the 1, 3, 5, 11, the 6 and possibly the 8, but the 8 won this race last year as a P and the 6 having won 4 wire to wire, won its last as a P - but has been laid off more than 3 months.
The early pace should be blazing so a horse from at least 4th back should be looked at strongly. Or at least a presser that has been off the lead by say 2 or more lengths.
The 2 has won as a P from 3rd, 2 off, and an E; the 8 won last year from 4th by 4.75 lengths; the 12, Jewel of a Cat has made runs from 4th a couple of times vs sub 44 fractions and has done reasonably well off layoffs; the 13 is also a pretty dedicated closer vs 44's.
If I play a pick 3 I will play all three (2-12-13) and win on the two best odds.
For me this is mostly a shape race. I can see the 2 and 13 running 55.6 and the 12 running 56.1
Race 8, with the 7 scratched:
The standout horse for me is the 6 Puca, coming from off the pace in the BC Juv Fillies. All the other routers times are 137 or slower. Of the 8 horses whose best races are sprints, I see the 12 closing 5-3-1-1 vs the fastest sprint of the group (a projected 45.3-109.4 fraction.
6 and 12 for me to win.
Hope we all do well today.
Bill
|