[Capcondo]

My thoughts on this race:

When I looked at this race initially, it looked to me like the 1,2, and 3 are early. I decided to use the tandem race for the 1,2,3,5,6,8, and 9 as the pace.

Pace: 22.1 45.4 59.0 1:05.2 Because it is 5.5 furlongs, I added 6 2/5 seconds to the 5 furlong call.

Here are the horses:

1: E/P against winners. Contender
2: E This is the problem child. The guy who claimed him saw that she runs well off a layoff. Won 1st out at Tdn. Forgiving the previous two races (my achilles heel is forgiving too many bad races) which were run on turf and a sloppy track, I'm down to the 4th race back which was a very good one at Mth. Pace went 22.0 45.3 58.3 fighting. Also ran against those fractions at GP in maiden score closing from 2nd position. If she can run those fractions here, she's going to be tough to beat. The problem here is Mth is 2 seconds faster at 6F than Tdn. I hate to penalize horses coming from better tracks. Contender.
3: E. I think she'll get the lead. Needs to be loose in 22.3. Not going to happen. Out.
4: S Good race two back. No confirming race. Out.
5: She was lost in tandem. Out.
6: Trouble at start in tandem. Did nothing. No pace in any other like the tandem. Out.
7: Only time she ran well against fast pace was in maiden win. Out.
8: Closed up in tandem race from middle position but not enough to my liking. Ran against fast paces at Ind which is a very fast track. I don't trust the fractions there. Out.
9: Ran close in tandem. She is a P type which is going to hurt here chances. Out.

Analysis: There are a lot of unknowns here. As you can see, I don't like the sustained horses her. If I were to pick a horse, I would pick the 2. This is a race I would pass.

Tim