|
Brohamer Decision Model
I'm reading MODERN PACE, I need some type of Decision Model as in the book.
Well, I think I do, I keep records in 20 race cycles of each track I play, and keep track of all my bets.
In reading the book, I think I need a better idea of how the track is running.
I don't know what track is sustained or early or what, I just work the race and try to see how it will run. Track profiles seen to change.
Is the Brohamer Model outdated, is it still used?
Ok here an example. I handicap a race I have one Early and one Sustained
which running style fits todays track. I look at my track profile and see it there
is no real RS that fits. Something like this, out of the last 20 races, 8 Early,
5 Pressers and 7 Sustained. Not sure how to bet the race. I know that it will depend on how the race will run. I feel like I am missing something?
I found an old post that explains it kind of?
____________________________________________________________
Per Brohamer (per the Sartin Methodology Phase III, circa early 1990's):
Average Pace in sprints = the average of all 3 fractions. Whether you average factors [(F1+F2+F3) / 3] or simply sum them [F1+F2+F3] - you get the same information when you rank them or measure gaps between them. Total Energy (in RDSS) = F1+F2+F3, thus AP in sprints = Total Energy.
Average Pace in routes = (EP + SP) / 2 or (1/2 EP + 1/2 SP)
Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call.
Sustained Pace = SP = (EP+F3) / 2 or (1/2 EP plus 1/2 F3)
So restating Average Pace in routes: (1/2 EP) plus (1/2 EP plus 1/2 F3) or 1x EP plus 1/2 F3
In RDSS we have no factor which is 1 times Second call velocity (SC or EPR or EP) plus half of F3. Instead, we have 1x EPR plus 1x LPR (F3) = CPR (or TPR, if you prefer). Thus, CPR has more F3 in it than AP for routes (1x F3 versus 1/2 x F3)
Thus, in RDSS:
Total Energy = Average Pace in Sprints
CPR ~= Average Pace (AP) in routes (a bit more F3)
If AP = FW in Phase III (MPH), it became more nuanced later. In RDSS, FW in sprints = (2x EPR)+LPR. In routes, FW = EPR + (2x LPR).
The MPH FactorX (F1+F3) / 2 = RDSS FX = F1+F3 (same thing)
The MPH Turn Time (TT) = RDSS TT = F2 velocity
%Early EP/(EP+SP) evolved to %Median or (F1+F2) / (F1+F2+F3)
Hidden Energy is not given in MPH, but it is (roughly) F2+F3 = HID (in later Sartin DOS programs and in RDSS).
So that's the map between Modern Pace Handicapping (Sartin Phase III) factors and their equivalents in RDSS (and Speculator, Validator, Synthesis and other programs). RDSS factors other than these evolved since MPH times, covered in many Follow Ups (or by subsequent discussion here). MPH described factors are based on FPS velocity calculations, whereas in Pace makes the Race, EPR, LPR, TPR (or CPR) the calculations are based on a points based difference from a set of par times by distance - but they amount to fundamentally the same measurements.
Of course, in later software (and RDSS) all running times (and velocities and points-based factors) are adjusted by a Daily Track Variant, an Inter-Track variant (DTV and ITV supplied by TrackMaster), a distance equalization to today's distance and a surface equalization factor (calculated internally).
_______________________________________________________________
I wanted to find out if I can do this using RDSS instead of spending time, doing it by hand.
AP= Total Pace (Sprints)
AP= CPR (Routes)
EP=EPR (Sprint)
EP=EPR (Routes)
Is there a SP or is it not in RDSS,
Is this model out dated, or should I try something else?
I do keep a track profile of running times and RS, but it seems to need more.
I was using the Excel import, It was fine. I didn't stay with it, and not crazy about Excel.
Does anyone do this method or is there a better way.
From the book: A Decision Model-constructed from the figures and ratings of races previously handicapped.
Thanks
Don
|