Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Tampa Bay 2-13-14

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 12:15 PM

We start off with one helluva slobberknocker (and I say that loosely): an $8k maiden claimer for fillies and mares who combined to lose by 123 lengths in their last starts. Needless to say, when we use the guidelines from PMTR, there is no fulcrum pace of race to go by. By definition, this is a paceless parade.

#3 Chulini is the dominant horse in Adjusted SR, is also the type of short-priced favorite that I will let beat me all day. As a chronic "Sustained" runner with an 0-for-17 record while consistently losing at short prices, we should either look elsewhere, or nowhere at all.

Let's look at the lines and EPR's...

#1 Be A Charmer ran a (+) last start at long odds, with a 79.5 EPR. Her EPR in 2 of her other 3 races are within a point of her last race EPR. Rates a potential pace threat in here. Not inspiring are her LPR ratings which nosedive as the race gets longer. I can't see this getting better on a stretchout, but nevertheless, we use Line 1 (last start, albeit wrong distance, but a (+) race so I won't penalize) and take a "wait and see" approach.

#2 Teresa's Kim gets no line: No start in 227 days and 0-for-21 to boot. Hard to imagine that time off would improve her ability.

#3 Chulini is the horse that we talked about at the onset. Stretches out to two turns for the first time today. She has run (-) races in two of her last three at shorter in this low claiming condition. I can't see how her late kick gets magnified by the stretchout. Nonetheless, Line 2 is "closest to the pin" so to speak when it comes to distance difference, so we will use that + race in rating the contenders.

#4 She's From Dixie is an instatoss: No line.

#5 Pia's Promise is the "Fighter" in this race. Her (+) race came in Line 2, 19 days ago. Her Line 1 from 11 days ago is a standard (-) race. I won't compromise and will assign no line.

#6 Janny's Girl takes a big drop in company, facing much weaker than her Tampa debut a week ago today. However, her form is littered with (-) races at all distances with a + race at 6.5 furlongs several back. No line.

#7 Alaskan Dawn looks like a straightforward (-) off recent races, so no line.

Only the #1 and #3 have rated lines here. If I take the BL/BL at face value with the non-contenders taken out, the #3 blows the #1 away.

Bottom Line: No value in this race = no bet.

02-13-2014, 12:15 PM	#4
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Race 1 We start off with one helluva slobberknocker (and I say that loosely): an $8k maiden claimer for fillies and mares who combined to lose by 123 lengths in their last starts. Needless to say, when we use the guidelines from PMTR, there is no fulcrum pace of race to go by. By definition, this is a paceless parade. #3 Chulini is the dominant horse in Adjusted SR, is also the type of short-priced favorite that I will let beat me all day. As a chronic "Sustained" runner with an 0-for-17 record while consistently losing at short prices, we should either look elsewhere, or nowhere at all. Let's look at the lines and EPR's... #1 Be A Charmer ran a (+) last start at long odds, with a 79.5 EPR. Her EPR in 2 of her other 3 races are within a point of her last race EPR. Rates a potential pace threat in here. Not inspiring are her LPR ratings which nosedive as the race gets longer. I can't see this getting better on a stretchout, but nevertheless, we use Line 1 (last start, albeit wrong distance, but a (+) race so I won't penalize) and take a "wait and see" approach. #2 Teresa's Kim gets no line: No start in 227 days and 0-for-21 to boot. Hard to imagine that time off would improve her ability. #3 Chulini is the horse that we talked about at the onset. Stretches out to two turns for the first time today. She has run (-) races in two of her last three at shorter in this low claiming condition. I can't see how her late kick gets magnified by the stretchout. Nonetheless, Line 2 is "closest to the pin" so to speak when it comes to distance difference, so we will use that + race in rating the contenders. #4 She's From Dixie is an instatoss: No line. #5 Pia's Promise is the "Fighter" in this race. Her (+) race came in Line 2, 19 days ago. Her Line 1 from 11 days ago is a standard (-) race. I won't compromise and will assign no line. #6 Janny's Girl takes a big drop in company, facing much weaker than her Tampa debut a week ago today. However, her form is littered with (-) races at all distances with a + race at 6.5 furlongs several back. No line. #7 Alaskan Dawn looks like a straightforward (-) off recent races, so no line. Only the #1 and #3 have rated lines here. If I take the BL/BL at face value with the non-contenders taken out, the #3 blows the #1 away. Bottom Line: No value in this race = no bet.