Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 01-29-2014, 09:16 AM

Trotman,

Thank you for (inadvertantly) bringing up again the valuable lessons contained in the race discussed at the beginning of this Topic. The core of the Sartin Methodology is The Matchup: the central FACT of a horse race that:

'one horse goes out for the lead and the others try to catch him; if they do, he loses, if they don't - he wins'.

The opening race exercise was about identifying Running Styles, then understanding that a Lone Early horse, with no one else to pressure him, will slow down, conserve energy and stand a good chance to go wire to wire. Another adage we are smart to remember is:

'a horse runs as fast as it needs to, not as fast as it can'.

I believe that these facts about the Matchup and Running Styles are still not understood enough today. If they were understood more in 1990 (the date of that exercise race), no way would the crowd have let the horse go off at 2-1. Today, perhaps that race winner would have paid 1-1, but almost every day of the week, similar scenarios occur which pay more than 2-1, some even enough to bet another horse as a saver when uncertainties exist.

Trotman, you have been at this game for 40 years and have internalized all these truths - that's why you saw it in 20 seconds and 'moved on' (yet apparently were still unsure enough of the analysis and so declined to have taken the easy 2-1 odds). However, every week , I am in contact with newcomers to this website, to the Sartin Methodology and Matchup concepts - some of whom have only become fascinated with horse race analysis and betting for a short time (e.g. a year or less - yes, it's true: new blood!)

You will notice that this Forum is titled Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...). People need a resource today to learn the concepts you learned long ago from your various mentors (Ray Taulbot, Andy, Michael Pizzolla, etc). And that is what is happening in this particular Forum: the Basics - 101 (and more, 102 ...). A person can choose for themselves whether they have the skills at any point to decide whether a race contains too much uncertainty and too little price to risk a bet, and thus 'move on'. I submit that some (or many) would see the fit and ready Lone Early horse in that race and decide it was a good value. And from that lesson learned, look for other similar race scenarios today on which they can make similar wagers, whether at 2-1 or perhaps less - or sometimes more.

'Move on' perhaps, but only after having internalized the lesson being taught in this Topic.

Ted

01-29-2014, 09:16 AM	#147
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Trotman, Thank you for (inadvertantly) bringing up again the valuable lessons contained in the race discussed at the beginning of this Topic. The core of the Sartin Methodology is The Matchup: the central FACT of a horse race that: 'one horse goes out for the lead and the others try to catch him; if they do, he loses, if they don't - he wins'. The opening race exercise was about identifying Running Styles, then understanding that a Lone Early horse, with no one else to pressure him, will slow down, conserve energy and stand a good chance to go wire to wire. Another adage we are smart to remember is: 'a horse runs as fast as it *needs to, not as fast as it can'. I believe that these facts about the Matchup and Running Styles are still* not understood enough today. If they were understood more in 1990 (the date of that exercise race), no way would the crowd have let the horse go off at 2-1. Today, perhaps that race winner would have paid 1-1, but almost every day of the week, similar scenarios occur which pay more than 2-1, some even enough to bet another horse as a saver when uncertainties exist. Trotman, you have been at this game for 40 years and have internalized all these truths - that's why you saw it in 20 seconds and 'moved on' (yet apparently were still unsure enough of the analysis and so declined to have taken the easy 2-1 odds). However, every week , I am in contact with newcomers to this website, to the Sartin Methodology and Matchup concepts - some of whom have only become fascinated with horse race analysis and betting for a short time (e.g. a year or less - yes, it's true: new blood!) You will notice that this Forum is titled *Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101* (102 ...). People need a resource today to learn the concepts you learned long ago from your various mentors (Ray Taulbot, Andy, Michael Pizzolla, etc). And that is what is happening in this particular Forum: the Basics - 101 (and more, 102 ...). A person can choose for themselves whether they have the skills at any point to decide whether a race contains too much uncertainty and too little price to risk a bet, and thus 'move on'. I submit that some (or many) would see the fit and ready Lone Early horse in that race and decide it was a good value. And from that lesson learned, look for other similar race scenarios today on which they can make similar wagers, whether at 2-1 or perhaps less - or sometimes more. 'Move on' perhaps, but only after having internalized the lesson being taught in this Topic. Ted __________________ RDSS -** Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 01-29-2014 at 09:18 AM.