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Seg,
I looked at and played this race as I thought I could beat the post time favorite, #5 Tizracer. Like you I had good EP figures for #3 Unbridled Saint. Since you have posted this, I re-looked at this horse. His running style is listed as EP5, according to bris, meaning he only gets the lead sometimes. There is no E horse in the field, so I gave him the benefit of inheriting the lead. Still looking at his last 10 races and he has only once broke first. Even at the 1Call he only shows 2 seconds and 1 third position (no first). It doesn't look like he'll break away from the field by 1Call.
So he breaks first and holds the lead through 2Call on a 46.98 - 71.59 pace. Line 1 for him is listed as a Gd track that was playing slow by 7, so any Track Variant adjustment will make him look even faster. But look at all his other route races and I think Line 1 gives him to much early pace. So even though it meant taking a race that was 116 days old, I used Line 2 (which seemed to fit his running style). It still made him the early pace of this field with a 47.9 - 72.0 POH rating.
What happened in the race? It looks like he went a bit faster early than he should. 47.0 - 71.6 when Line 2 shows him at 47.9 - 72.0. Probably from the pressure from the winner #2 Trading Secrets, who according to Line 2, didn't show that type of Early Pace. I did not want to use Line 1 on him as it was a Turf Race, but in that race he did show a new dimension of running early.
Was Unbridled Secret put into a race shape that became uncomfortable for him? Or was the pace just a little to fast? The final time of the race was 106.5 and Line 2 shows him at 106.6. He ran a final time close to his ability but looks more like the early pace was just a bit to much on him.
I narrowed the field to only 4 contenders. They were 4-3-7-2. All 4 were rated off Line 2 in their PP's.
Ray
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