Quote:
|
Originally Posted by RichieP
At one time this application was a big part of Howard's arsenal. Hat still uses it to help him. Pizzola really considers a "reversal" or tandem "loser" to have built in price.
Any feedback from folks here? Do you apply it in today's racing?
Rich
|
If I remember correctly, it was Doc Sartin who said the following in "Pace Makes the Race," winners repeat only about 12% of the time. Horses who finished second in the tandem win 30% more often than normal. Horses who showed, came in fourth, or were within 3.75 lengths of the winner won 40% of the time. All of the above statements are contingent upon having two or more of today’s qualifiers coming from the tandem race, and the best tandem horse having one of the best three pace ratings in today’s race."
The natural odds on a 12% shot is 7.3 to one, which you will rarely get. Therefore you (I) must have an excellent reason to select the last race tandem winner.
I believe the tandem concept is as powerful today as it was when first introduced. The Hat still used it effectively, and I belive it is one of the most effecient ways of eliminating horses quickly.
Using software such as Speculator puts you at a disadvantage as far as tandems are concerned, because you can't seen any of the tandem races or the horses against which they competed--key races are also left out. I feel this is a major drawback of these types of software programs (Validator shows tandems), and something I hope will be addressed in the newer windows version.
That being said I feel you can get by without using tandems, but using them will make your handicapping that much more effective.
Steve