Quote:
Originally Posted by Segwin
In thinking about the 8th at Sar yesterday and how Central Banker came back, after a + 270 day layoff, to win by three got me wondering if even considering betting a race such as this is a waste of time.
Thoughts?
|
Be careful with what I consider a mistake that NY players make-- avoiding horses with a layoff. You'll find yourself having problems if you play on the West Coast.
In the late fall, you'll find a number of horsejs in California that had shin problems as 2yr olds. They sometimes have been off for an extended periods of time. Maybe a year.
I think Mark has described their come backs very well. However high end connections often move the horse to a different trainer, to people that do this type of training. Generally, they burst train at 1 or 2 furlong, many times a week. And keep the over all work shorter than normal. I keep my eyes out for these in the fall. You'll see them run in high end MSW in S Cal as a two year old, and then there is a break. They come back in a little softer race. You might see them come back in a GG MSW, and in a short grass race, and with a morning rider and trainer you've never seen before. These are the types of horses that buy me new cars. The tip off is the high end breeder is the same. They've put a lot of money into a horse with a pedigree. They just want to get a win and they often do it 1st time out.
Another problem NY players will face is High end horses coming back after the triple crown. You'll be face with that in the Travers. You'll have to decide if horses such as Orb and Incognito are worth a bet( if they run.) Historically they both could light up the boards. Both will be factors this coming fall.
These are just a couple of example from my style of play. I generally stick with the higher purses.