Hi late kick
Quote:
Bill V. I understand what you are saying, though I am quite new to this sight I have been reading and learning the method for about a year now. Ive read mostly all of the pace line manual and read up on some of the other manuals.
I use the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface, and if the last 3 is at a different surface I go back as far as I need to get a line for this surface. The problem I most often run into is when I choose the last line because its a comparable distance and surface, and the line ranks low, so I dismiss the horse. Well it seems that often times, the horse wins and I am sitting there scrachting my head, and when I go back to look at the horses pps, it shows a line 2 or 3 back that would have made this horse very competitive. To rid of this problem I thought of maybe instead of using running lines to choose best of last 3, to use Speed ratings to choose my best line of the last 3. Say its a 6f dirt sprint. The horse in question ran a 78 going 7f last race and 3 back ran an 85 going 6f. Should I go back to the line 3 back or stay with the 78 being that its the horses last race?
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This is a good question...
I look at Parx every racing day, I am often face with a similar problem
as Parx 7 furlong races tend to be adjusted too fast.
Some things you would want to consider. What speed ratings has the horse earned at 6 furlongs in its plus races? and is the 7 furlong race comperable
What about the early late and total energy? 7 furlong races tend to have faster epr ratings because so much of the race is run before they hit the turn.
If I can I always try to use a similar distance for a paceline