[Bill V.]

hello Matt

Here is the deal, Try to not think in terms of 1 horse or 2 horses
In The Sartin Methodology and wager-capping we need to think in terms of 3

What I mean and I hope I didn't miss guide you or anybody. When I handicap
a race I almost always have 5 win contenders But for now lets focus on the
top 3 If I have 3 horses on top of BLBL and 1 of them is under 5/2
I will bet the other 2 horses. If however 2 of the top 3 are under 5/2,
Now I only have 1 horse to bet so I will pass the race.

The value of wagercapping in the Sartin Methodology is that because you
by pass the low odds horse you now have two longer price horses.
The public made the low odds horse, Now since you have gone 2 horses
down on the odds board your looking at a horse who has just as good readouts. In the Sartin Methodology all three horse on top of your BLBL
should be considered as equal ability, The deciding factor is the near post time odds.

Here is what I mean

Race 1 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse A B and C since they are the top 3
BLBL they should be looked at as equal ability, You should not handicap off of the top 3 BLBL! Your handicapping is in your pace line selection.


Horse A is 5/2
Horse B is 6/5
Horse C is 5/1

Here my bets are horse A and C

Race Race 2 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse D E and F =All are equal
Horse A is 8/5
Horse B is 6/5
Horse C is 12/1

Here I have only 1 horse - horse C
So since I only bet to win, this is a pass
and I will tell you. I have been burned by horse C types !
Its a method that in the long run will pay off if you pass consistently.


THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS >>
Make sure the low odds horse is beatable !!
This is were its so important to learn FTL's lessons
Make sure before you throw out or in Doc's words "hide" a horse
for win only, Make sure the horse is not a man eater

Bill