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First, I'll just offer some statistical information from my database of more than 600,000 races and 5,000,000 horses.
Horses OFF more than 90 days win less than 5% of all races.
As far as whether or not to play a particular race is up to each individual.
CLORE1030 indicated he would not have played the race for two reasons...
1 - the horse OFF 250 days, and
2 - a horse with no running lines
This is a good and logical approach.
Somewhere in the methodology, I believe there is a guideline that says where there are 2 or more "unknown factors" (UF), the race should be passed. Again, a logical approach.
Trying to pick a winner is hard enough. Trying to pick a winner with multiple horses in the race without good information from which to evaluate those horses only compounds the problem.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
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