[Mark]

A 250+ day layoff horse is of absolutely no interest to me at less than 5/1. I want some reward to take this risk and risk it is.A horse coming off the race track needs at least 30 days to be let down. They are too wound up to be put out in a paddock and at most will be turned out in a round pen where they can’t build up much speed because they are always turning. Conventional training methods will generally require 90 days to prepare a horse for his first race. The Cannon bone in their front legs has to be conditioned and strengthened to survive the stress of the pounding that occurs in racing. It actually changes from cartilage to bone in this process. So that tells you that it required a period of about 4 months of inactivity to heal whatever was wrong with the horse. That usually indicates some kind of surgery.Personally, I want to see at least 60 days of published workouts. Usually the bigger barns at the AAA tracks will show this activity but if you play at a minor track sometimes all you will see is one workout which is generally required by track management for a horse that has not raced in 60 days. The traditional approach is 3f works, generally two, progressing to 4f and then 5f. Some horses and trainers are adept at this while others require racing to get back into winning condition. Time of the works is less important than quantity, but generally you would like to see a work within 30 days of today’s race from the gate where the horse ran within 2 seconds of racing speed. That is generally the signal for the trainer to look for a race and since condition books are published 2 weeks in advance the trainer will find a race when he feels he has a fit horse.Candidly, the only way to gain some confidence in your ability to predict this type of thing is through practical experience. Get some good trainer stats and see what the trainer’s record is with layoff horses of the time period in question. Look carefully at the horse’s placement today. Generally if the horse is brought back at a claiming level higher than what he was successful at prior to the layoff, he is in for the exercise. The trainer is willing to lose the horse for a premium.Personally, I like to see a series of works such as 3f, 3f, 4f, 4f, 5f, 5f, and then speed work at 3f or 4f. That tells me the trainer is serious. However, you seldom see it. Spacing is not really all that important in the initial works as many trainers use two minute licks and other gallops in between the works. In fact, the works are basically to determine if the horse is progressing in his conditioning.
You will see tracks like WO where it is rare for a horse to win first out regardless of the works. WO is a synthetic surface and possibly that has some effect. Tracks that close for a period of 60 days or so in the winter such as Haw or Mnr really must be watched closely for several years to see what trainers have access to swimming pools during that period and within a few days their horses will be bet to favoritism when they win off the bench at a high percentage.
Keep records!!! If you win one out of 10 on paper then don’t take less than 10/1. Generally, sprinters are better bets than routers because fast Early horses are easier to prepare. It is harder to build the stamina of routers without a series of longer works.