[Bill Lyster]

I do not use RDSS to handicap marathons, except to get the times from the PPs. There is so much more info being used by the program and the method for these races is so simple (relatively) that I write down the info and Matchup manually using The Hat's methodology.

Here is the info I put on the site prior to the Belmont. In this case I do not show horses that I did not consider to be contenders.








Two things here. I did not pick Palace Malice to win the Belmont, but I have been studying The Matchup quite a bit lately and with recent understandings in place here is how IT MIGHT GO. 2ndly, The Hat cautioned against handicapping beyond the stretch call, saying that doing so would put you on too many sustained horses. That being said and the fact that horses on or near the lead at the mile call win most races at 10 f and beyond, why do it?

If you considered FC and PM as early horses and matched up their lines, PM would put FC away after 6 furlongs and then await the charge of Orb, Oxbow and UB. But where is UB going to be in this pace scenario. She likes to press, but only off mid 111+ fractions - that puts her either further back or exhausted if she stays in 3rd pressing. She cannot make up ground from that far back and would not have anything left if she pressed; Orb and Oxbox go past her. Based on the Derby mile positioning Oxbow would be closer than Orb. In this case the 4th 3rd and 1st/or 9th best mile times hit the podium.

Sorry its after the fact, but that is how I would handicap it today.

For the Preakness Oxbow had the best mile time and won; and for the Derby Orb had the best mile time from the 2/23/13 GP race. I did get those two races.

Regards,