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As a guy who hasn't picked a derby winner since Swale, take this all with a grain of salt.
At first glance, there is not much early speed in this race. I think it will be won by a horse near the lead. Only Verrazano and Golden Cents look early.
After calculating mile times, I came up with:
Itsmyluckyday 1:35.2
Goldencents 1:35.3
Orb 1:35.4
Lines of Battle 1:37.0 (I decided to use his 7f race 3 back and add 12.4 seconds)
Then, I calculated the three year best at 1 1/8 miles.
SA 1:46.2
OP 1:48.2
GP 1;47.2
AQU 1:49.1
FG 1:48.3
KEE 1:46.3
Analysis:
Snce Goldencents earned his times at Santa Anita which is the fastest three year best, I am going to toss him. This got me in trouble last year with I'll have Another. Orb has won three in a row (a HAT angle) and will have to come from a ways back so I'll toss him.
This leaves me with Itsmyluckyday who seems to have the right running style (P), can pass horses, and is 15/1 on the morning line. I am also going to use Lines of Battle just in case the decent figure earned in Europe as a 2 YO holds up.
Good luck.
Tim
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