Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveEdwards
FTL,
Moving on now from the above, but still concerning the impact of %E.
In a posting you made a while back concerning the Match-Up you made reference to the dangers of throwing out three (or more) matching Earlies as there was the potential that one of them was indeed superior to the others and could still get the lead leaving the others to an OTE role with a good chance then of taking the race.
My query here relates to the above scenario and the prevalent %E track requirements. When you have noticed situations where one of the Early horses was able to dominate, even though it appeared that it would not, were the track conditions favouring Early runners? & obviously vice-versa were the times that the three horses couldn't hold out on conditions when the track was favouring sustained types?
No worries if you've not collected this sort of data as I'll be watching for it from now on, just wondered if you'd made any observations on the above.
Thanks.
|
Let me start by saying, if I said that where there are multiple early horses in a race that get dominated by one of the "early" types and that the other early types are then relegated to "ote" status from which they
can win, then I apologize, that is not what I meant.
Where there are multiple early types in a race that get dominated by one of the early horses, the other early horses are relegated to "ote" status from which they
will not win. In most cases where there are 3,4 or more true early types, if there is one that dominates the rest, the rest have no choice but to become "ote", a position that is out of their normal running style, so they do the best they can early and then back up. So this presents the question of "how do you determine an early horse"? I'm sure that question would get numerous answers. Here is mine.
An early horse is one that demonstrates it wants the lead in every race it runs, at the first call. The usage of the word "wants" is to say it "tries" for the lead whether it gets the lead or not. Perhaps there was a faster horse in the race so it could do no better than 2nd at the first call. If a horse cannot demonstrate this in multiple races then it is not an early type. As you can see, this is all done on a "visual" inspection. Consider this.
In the "match up", where there is not an early horse, you are suppose to take a presser that runs close up and use that horse as your early horse. If this is true and that presser makes the lead, is it then an early type? NO! It is a presser that got the lead by default because there was no early horse in the race. When you see this race in the PP's, you cannot count this horse as an early type based on that race. All the other races where this horse did not make the lead, or try for the lead, is evidence that it is not an early type. Here is how I DO NOT classify an early type.
I DO NOT classify horses early based solely on Energy Distribution.
Just a quick note.
Not every race has has a true early type in it.
Not every race has multiple early types in it.
Before you can go any further, you must first have a consistent way of classifying running styles so you can identify the true early types and etc.
You mentioned "prevalent %E track requirements".
Here are my questions to you.
Do you mean based on "winners" %E?
Do you mean %E based on the running line you have selected?