Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveEdwards
This week I've been reading Tom Brohamer's MPH and have a query relating to the % Early calculation.
The formula is:
% Early Expended = Second Call / Total Energy
So if we take a recent race as an example: Parx April 23rd Race 4 won by Peace Cat. I've chosen this specifically as it was a wire job to keep the maths simple.
Early Pace (EP) = 2640 ft. / 45.79 seconds = 57.65 fps.
Last Fraction (LF) = 1320 ft. / 25.15 seconds = 52.49 fps.
Total Energy (TTL) = EP + LP = 57.65 + 52.49 = 110.14.
Percent Early (%E) = EP / TTL = 57.65 / 110.14 = 52.35%.
OK, all well and good so far, but on the results chart it says that there is a 40 foot run-up. Now I presume that this means that there is 40 foot from the stalls to where the timer starts. My question is, are the times included in the Equibase results charts already adjusted for the run-up?
If not, what is the adjustment that I would need to make in order to correctly account for the run up?
Also, Ted (hopefully you read this post), do the adjusted fps calculations that appear on the POH/POR screens account for the run up or is this something that I need to account for additionally when considering a horses PPs when looking at %E?
As I'm typing it has just occurred to me that the run-up may be in excess of the official 6F distance and so no adjustment would be required at all.
Hopefully this makes sense, if not please let me know & I'll rephase. I'd be most grateful for some help with this.
Thanks.
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I pay little attention to "run up" distances and any bearing they may have on the calculations............EXCEPT ONE.
When I first got involved with the Sartin Methodology, and being an east coast guy, it didn't take long for me to notice that something seemed amiss at PIMLICO. Horses that went wire to wire and then shipped to another track NEVER showed as an early horse. In fact, they always showed as a
sustained closer. Naturally this gave me cause for concern.
Some of you who are new to the game might think that "run up" distances have always been with us......THEY HAVEN'T!
At any rate, I did some investigating. What I learned was this. At most tracks the timer was "tripped" after the horses were already out of the gate and were somewhat in stride.
At Pimlico the horses tripped the timer as soon as they left the gate.
As a result of this I knew I had to make an adjustment.
Below is the chart of a recent 6 furlong race at Pimlico. Take note of the "run up" distance.....5ft. My guess it was 5ft all those many years ago as well, but after all, does it really make a difference....5ft or exactly as they leave the gate? Not really.
Hope this helps.