Quote:
Originally Posted by dogkatcher
FTL
When looking at the #6, I may have elected to use line 3. It seems to me
that the 2nd race back may have been somewhat atypical, as the first call time was the slowest in it's entire pp's.
Much like forgiving a race which a horse may have come across a too rapid early pace, would you consider going further back in this particular race?
Would position early be more important then the posted time?
I want to thank you for all your contributions, and find them to be highly beneficial.
John
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Your observation is correct. The first call time in line 2 is the slowest in the PP's.
If you chose line 3 for the reason you mentioned, it would certainly be understandable, however, I think your reasoning is a step above the basics.
Earlier in this thread, I posted a screen shot that came from a Follow Up where "Doc" said...
In every race I have reviewed on this site, I have used the same basics as I used in this race, because it is the concept of the basics that I am trying make clear. I am speaking to a group, an ever changing group, not an individual. One of the most important aspects of contender selection and line selection is
consistency. On that basis, I would answer your question "no" I would not go back on this horse.
"The posted time". I take that to mean the time taken from the line chosen. If that is true, then my answer is "yes", early position is more important. The time from one race is incidental, whereas a look at the horse's "body of work" (all its' PP's) provides a much clearer picture of what can be expected from the horse today.
Again, earlier in this thread I posted an example race from the Follow Ups where the idea was to find the winner without a computer. The idea was to find the winner based on "Running Style". It was very much a race like this one, where there was just one early horse. Where there is clearly only one early horse, that horse will make the lead in whatever time it needs to run in order to be in front, probably in a slower time than what might be anticipated.