[lsosa54]

Looking at the pace setup and speed figs, Donato looks tough. There are 2 horses that show a win at an open C20 - Donato and Graeme.

BRIS has O'Neill at 17% 1st Off Claim over the last 252 races - fine by me. Psychologically, he kept a piece of the claim and puts the horse in for $18,000 to get the 2 lbs. allowance. He also puts Bejarano on the horse who won with him at these conditions and just missed in an allowance race where he wasn't up for a claim. On the figs I use, he's the only horse that can match Donato's last.

Question is: Can he get the pace he needs, right around 1:10 in those bottom races?

Well, Baron's workout 2 back tells me he's in condition to push the pace in a route so it's possible he sets it too fast or at least pushes Donato hard.

The other question I ask myself is: who's improving? I see an improving pattern on Graeme, Muchos, and Spit. The best speed figs in that pattern is Muchos, who should have the first jump on the leaders. Spit's figs seem too low for the win but I've seen stranger things happen with so many claims in one race and Ellis is very good. If you throw out the turf handicap, Donato shows nice improvement as well, maybe too nice. Hell, in a short field, I wouldn't be shocked if Baron stole it.

So, you ask, what's the betting decision? I see Donato as the most likely winner, with Muchos and Graeme if he can get the pace nailing him if he falters. Based on the ML in this race, I see no value anywhere, so unless one of those 3 drift up odds wise at least to 6-1, I pass. I could see Donato at 9/5 and Gomez and Rafael will keep the odds low on the other two in this field right at or below the ML.

PASS - reward not worth the risk.