Thank You FTL
This horse fits something that I have been following.
One of the many lessons I got from this race is the 10
races in 210 days, This horse has been running consistently
so it looks fit.
I only see two breaks in its ten race, 1 after the claim at CRC, then the
move up north to Parx, 53 days The other is after the plus race line 2.
This is the pattern of a short "freshening" of 33 days 4-5 weeks
How did R.Moya and son handle the return of the fresh horse ?
The put it at 5.0 this time but also over its condition. into a NW3L
race at 5.0 furlongs.
It appears that they did not push the horse it about the same position
and its EPR and FFR were close to even.
anyway This looks like the kind of fresh horse that is mentioned in
Pace Makes The Race and how by using the horses past performance
record we can see what a trainer is doing with our horse.
From Pace Makes The Race
Selecting Pacelines chapter 14 pg 79
Layoffs and layoff patterns are by far the most complex and , in my opinion ,
the most profitable patterns in all of thoroughbred handicapping.
First, let me define a layoff as a period of thirty days or more between races.
There are long layoffs and short layoffs. Tom Brohamer, In Modern Pace
Handicapping, calls these short periods "freshening"
The first thing that I like to do is to note if there is a layoff somewhere in
the horses last three or four pace lines. If the last race was the race that
"put the horse in the barn" for a period of thirty or more days, we must answer
this question: how will the horse run after a layoff ? The answer is never certain,
and no one, not the owner, not the trainer, not the exercise rider, knows as a
matter of certainty how the horse will react to the layoff. They will make educated guesses based on the horse's fettle. We will make educated guesses based on the horses past performance
In my experience, the best indication that a horse will be able to run well after a layoff is that it has done so successfully in the past or at least within the last ten races [shown] 