Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 03-01-2013, 01:13 PM

Well, you should look at or compute from other distances what the mile times are including beaten lengths. I prefer using 10 furlong races mile splits, the same from 9 furlong races, then the 8.5 races and then mile races. I "think" mile race times are the least predictive unless that is all you have. You also have to look at running position and lengths gained.

I would not be too enthused about looking at a race from a year ago, especially if the horse has run recently and you can compute a mile time from the PPs. but if the pace of today's race does not show up in the PPs, except for that race a year ago, take the mile time and #lengths/5 and add it to the mile time. 16 lengths would be 3.2 seconds, not likely to make it a contender unless you are projecting a 133-134 mile out of the leader!!

Try to find the fastest early horse and do your best to determine a reasonable 6 furlong time that this horse can reproduce. Remember that the winner in the Big Cap, like the Derby has been on the lead or within about 2-3 positions and 3-4 lengths in the stretch/mile call in almost every race at this distance, so unless there is an unmitigated speed dual up front you will not be looking at horses that run 10-7-5 more like 1-1-1, 2-2-1, 3-2-1, 5-3-2, 6-4-2, i.e, early and/or presser types that gain ground and position against a reasonable pace. Remember too, that the calls shown above stop at the stretch call - you are showing ability to close to the stretch call here. (In the off chance that you have to use a mile time include the stretch call, but be wary of these types without any other longer races.) With Game on Dude in there a reasonable pace is pretty much assured

I just rank the fastest 5 or so mile times from the longer races and then look to see who is closest to the lead, who is making up ground and positions, trying to determine who gets first run if/when the leader starts to fade. Unless they have done it before or have a super huge early lead, need to lead types with any pressure fold, so usually you are looking for those just off the lead.

One other thing here. classy horses win classy races. You don't want to go too far back on horses that have not successfully run at the graded level of this race. Maybe an emergency allowance horse off its last race or two, but mostly horses proven at this level.

Good luck tomorrow,

Bill

03-01-2013, 01:13 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	Well, you should look at or compute from other distances what the mile times are including beaten lengths. I prefer using 10 furlong races mile splits, the same from 9 furlong races, then the 8.5 races and then mile races. I "think" mile race times are the least predictive unless that is all you have. You also have to look at running position and lengths gained. I would not be too enthused about looking at a race from a year ago, especially if the horse has run recently and you can compute a mile time from the PPs. but if the pace of today's race does not show up in the PPs, except for that race a year ago, take the mile time and #lengths/5 and add it to the mile time. 16 lengths would be 3.2 seconds, not likely to make it a contender unless you are projecting a 133-134 mile out of the leader!! Try to find the fastest early horse and do your best to determine a reasonable 6 furlong time that this horse can reproduce. Remember that the winner in the Big Cap, like the Derby has been on the lead or within about 2-3 positions and 3-4 lengths in the stretch/mile call in almost every race at this distance, so unless there is an unmitigated speed dual up front you will not be looking at horses that run 10-7-5 more like 1-1-1, 2-2-1, 3-2-1, 5-3-2, 6-4-2, i.e, early and/or presser types that gain ground and position against a reasonable pace. Remember too, that the calls shown above stop at the stretch call - you are showing ability to close to the stretch call here. (In the off chance that you have to use a mile time include the stretch call, but be wary of these types without any other longer races.) With Game on Dude in there a reasonable pace is pretty much assured I just rank the fastest 5 or so mile times from the longer races and then look to see who is closest to the lead, who is making up ground and positions, trying to determine who gets first run if/when the leader starts to fade. Unless they have done it before or have a super huge early lead, need to lead types with any pressure fold, so usually you are looking for those just off the lead. One other thing here. classy horses win classy races. You don't want to go too far back on horses that have not successfully run at the graded level of this race. Maybe an emergency allowance horse off its last race or two, but mostly horses proven at this level. Good luck tomorrow, Bill