Thanks for posting what pace can do in the matchup Lone Speed.
Here is an example from last Sunday at the Fair Grounds. I'm sorry I don't have a printout of the horse's PP. I have attached the charts from Cheetah Pants's first race (Dec 14th) and the race last week which was the third race. The second race was in the slop. It was not a bad race but I decided to use the maiden win on Dec. 14th to evaluate the horse.
In the maiden win on Dec 14th, Cheetah pants had the following running line:
Splits: 21.4 45.4 59.0 1:13.2
Position and Lengths: 2 hd 1 hd 1 1.5L 1 5.5L
What attracted me to the horse was the lack of early speed among the other entrants and Cheetah Pants ability to fight at the first two calls.
In the win last Sunday, the running line looked like this:
Splits: 22.1 46.0 58.1 1:11.2
Position and Lengths: 1 1L 1 4L 1 2.5L 1 .5L
So, Cheetah Pants didn't have to run as fast as in the maiden win and didn't have to fight. Using a 1/5 second at the first call being worth 2/5 second in the final time, the final time would then be 1:12.3. This is 6/5 of a second slower than she actually ran on Feb. 10th.
Two things to consider here. Fighting through the first two calls expended a great deal of energy in her maiden win. She didn't have to expend this energy in the race last Sunday since she was loose on the lead. Also, the maiden win was her first race. These factors account for the 6/5 second difference IMHO.
When I analyze situations like this, I follow Hat's and Richie's advice and never consider final time unless it is very slow or the horse did not run well. I don't carry my analysis past the stretch call.
The effects of a horse fighting at any stage of the race are covered in the 8 month update in the Hat Check Section. Well worth reading over and over again.
BTW, after analyzing the race and selecting her, I didn't put a dime on her. She paid $25.60
Next time.