Thanks FTL
I wanted to show the readouts that I used to support my
betting decisions
I don't do many 1 mile races but I check them all
Usually 1 mile races have too many issues with sprinters mixed in
In todays race I saw the sprinters had no EPR speed in the route races
they had tried in the past
I was confident that none of the sprinters were fast enough to
beat the route horses
This does not happen very often, thats why I almost always
pass 1 mile races
Line 1
FTL has written often how when a early horse can not get the lead
its third fraction is not a true readout
I do my own ESP analysis of every non maiden race
The nice thing about this race was I only had 1 Early horse
Horse 1 also is a E7 the 7 is the Quirin speed rating.
Any horse with a 7 or 8 is sure to want the lead
I have marked horse 1's PP's and It always breaks well and
passes horses to get the lead
PHASE 1
I use Phase 1 Its a true Sartin Methodology program
and its all right here in RDSS
AS FTL points out Line 1 is a plus within a zero race.
but because its LPR is so weak its TPR will be weak
When I see a Early horse with this type of line 1 paceline
I check its EPR and LPR balance. I compared its plus race
balance to that line and I saw it tied way to hard to hold
on to the lead it got in the first fraction.
I saw the unbalanced Early ( for this horse)
by the big red stick with a +19 and in its other plus races
Its normal EPR is about 81 In line 1 it ran a 87
Since Line 1 was a (+) line and the horse is coming right back
after only 9 days I wanted to check what happend in the
Jan 5th race
I went back to that race and since I had done the ESP
for that race that day, I saw that in the Jan 5th Match UP
The 1 horse was in with 4 other strong QSP Early horses.
Since it got the lead in that tough match up I felt that
Line 2 even though it was a
muddy line would be more
indicitive of what would happen today
Here is my Phase 1 analysis only these 4 horses were
contenders.
Since I do my own ESP analysis for every horse I saw the 1 would not
have to work that hard to get and hold the lead in todays match up
