Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
I have had a few requests from folks to include back some of the older readouts: Entropy, Longshot Potential, the EXDC/Thoromation readouts (Emuv, Smuv, uXr, Paragons). A LOT of them are, IMO, redundant to what we now have. None-the-less, I will undertake to display those somewhere in RDSS2.
Meanwhile, there is a quick and dirty way to see who best overcame the Pace of the Race, either in the last race or in a consistently chosen set of recent lines for all horses: compare the Total Energy for the Horse to the Total Energy for the Race, for races where the horse ran a good race (i.e. not one where it was sucked around the back half of the field against a fast pace). When the horse TE is higher than the race TE - it can only be so because the horse's velocities in a given fraction were higher than the pace setters creating those fractions (i.e. tiring less slowly than the front-runner(s) ), thus the sum of the horse's fractional velocities (i.e. Total Energy) will exceed the fractional velocities of the pace setters(s) - i.e. the horse was gaining on the pace (aka the horse was decelerating less than the pace was decelerating).
The Longshot Potential does show that - as one whole number, or ranking - but I have noticed that is fairly erratic as a standalone number, and as likely to disappoint as to thrill. It was the attempt to distill the entire Entropy/Deceleration work into a single readout. I think V/DC was (is) a much more mature expression of that question: ' who is decelerating the least compared to how fast they were traveling', which is why it evolved and the Longshot Potential languished.
But I will reinstate it somewhere. Meanwhile, an eyeball of who ran well against the fastest pace (last race, or recent good races) is pretty easy to do, and is indeed invaluable information to have in a race matchup 
(Longshot Potential wasn't in Speculator, but was in Validator).
Ted |
Ted...
Thanks for your response to my question regarding longshot potential....I have no problem with this ranking vanguishing if V/dc is a more mature expression.....But my question will then be:...will it rank the pace in question the same way but just with a slight different calculation....I do not need to know the method of calculations....I just would like to be aware of the #1 ranked Longshot Potential horse not by his pacelines but within the matchup of contenders that I am evaluating......
The programs after Thoromation up to Validator seem to move away from putting the horse that faced the fastest pace of race and gave more weight to the horse that was more proficient in L/ep rankings ( what was sustained fraction before). Ted, I do not have enough race samples to validate this statement.....this comment is only from races that I worked with my associate ( you know who.in fact, he gave up on all programs after energy)
I was interested in the longshot potential horse because in some programs after Thoromation....the second horse does not ranked well in the programs after Thoromation......they do get the winner, but the second horse ranked low in many readouts....( I know....as long as the winners are there) Some races, the only readouts that they do ranked well within the matchup of true contenders was in #1 or #2 longshot potential rankings.....yes...this ranking tend to disappoint more often than not....
Sample race: Santa Anita 12/30/2012 race #8 9furlongs on turf...Thoromation gets the right two finishers in the top two on the SP screen....but Tiz Flirtatious is nowhere to be found except on Longshot Potential because he faced the fastest pace of race....Qaraaba is ranked #1 and Tiz is ranked #2
my pacelines:
Halo---Line 3
Qaraaba---line 1---best TT...
Vivo Per Let---line 3
Tiz Flirtatious--line 1---owns first call....
If V/dc does the job...I am more than content to move on.....
Thanks in advance.....