Dave,
As I mentioned above, in
Default mode, the value of a beaten length is uniformly
8.333 feet per length. In
Val4 mode, at the Final and during Fraction 3, the value used is
less than half of that, which is in keeping with the difference in Computed Beaten Length values (Segments Screen) of Val4 mode (4.8) versus Default mode (10.8).
If you followed the 'rule' to not use lines in Val4 mode where the horse was beaten more than 7.75 lengths (i.e. don't make the horse look too good when it isn't), you would have had to use the 3rd line back, which puts the horse on top.
Then you have to worry about whether the horse is in declining form, regressing final time Speed Ratings, etc. However, try this for fun: put in the #5 horse's last 3 lines and see who
owns the first 2 calls - it is the #5 horse in every case!!
This is an important point: when an Early horse gets the
0.0 0.0 at the Segments screen first 2 calls (i.e. owns the first 2 calls) and is unlikely to be seriously challenged for the lead -
always consider this horse strongly, especially at any kind of price (e.g. 11-1 here). In a way, this frees you of dithering whether you should use the horses 3rd line over the 1st line: it doesn't matter - it will get a comfortable early lead and slow down sufficient to persist against a pace it could not face recently. If it loses, it loses (and at those odds, back it up to Place), but be in the game when that matchup scenario does hit.
Dave, regarding your over 16 beaten length value - perhaps attach a screen shot to show precisely what screen that number is appearing on. If you use Default mode and all other default adjustment settings, I'm not sure how that would appear in the Segments Screen CBL Final column for the #5 horse, line 1.
Ted