I see there are several posts following the teaching example, but I want to be honest with myself here and do this exercise & post whatever I come up with. I’ll be using the concepts that I am familiar with, which are the 0,+ & (+) (albeit there appears to be varying definitions of exactly where the cut off lies between each, back to guidelines & no rules!) & what I have gathered from Richie’s Match Up Thread. This is typed in word & will be posted when I'm done.
I’m afraid I have no idea how to calculate APV, or anything else for that matter. OK, let’s do this!
Cozy Road. Running Style U. Initial thoughts are this horse like to start far back & then drift further away from the pace. Without looking at any other horses already looks to have no chance unless racing against Shetland ponies.
To Be Impressive. Running Style EP likes to lead if pace isn’t sub 22:00 in sprints. Candidate to set pace.
No Se Porque. Running Style S. Late swooper.
Situada. All turf form. Running Style. Slight evidence of S, apart from that U. As the only running style is very late, if at all, this turf runner most probably doesn’t have the credentials to make the transition to dirt racing where more evidence of being involved early would be to it’s advantage.
Lap of Luxury. Running Style S. Last 3 races it’s best BL being 5 lengths.
Chicken Dinner. Running Style S. Again, getting beaten by fair distances.
Now for paceline selection. There is only one horse likely to set the pace here with the rest being Sustained types. This is already screaming out To Be Impressive as having a really good shout here. Will select the POR from one of his recent line & take it from there (going to use horses initials now to make it easier):
TBI – 23rd May 46:3 1
3 1:45 1-1.5 1-3 1-4 1-0.5
(the bold figure above being the BL of course)
CR – on 15th Mar 90 & 1st of May 90 faced similar pace & was destroyed both times. Out.
NSP – 23rd May Tandem with TBI beaten by 8L. Out as there is no reason for the pace set to be different as it is highly likely the same horse sets the pace here.
S – as stated, I just can see how this gets involved, but will look at it’s line from 30th Mar which had a SR of 85.
47:4 1
4 1:43:1 9-11 10-11 10-11 9-10.5
If attempting to keep pace with the 46:3 will be forced to run 6 lengths faster than in this race, plus the 10.5L to make up at the end. Don’t think so.
LOL – In tandem with TBI on 23rd May & beaten 5L. Out with same pacemaker.
CD – Line 2 has SR of 80 & very similar pace.
46:1 1
1 1:42:4 6-5.75 3-2.5 2-4 2-6
Now this is an interesting horse. Power move gaining position & lengths against a pace 2 lengths faster over the 46:1 & 1
1.
OK, I’m taking TBI to lead all the way round & get mugged late by CD. Hopefully the prices are worth it & I could have backed both, but my call here is CD to win in a race with essentially two contenders.
OK, will copy & paste this in now & then check the result!