Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Ted Craven

Ted Craven · 09-25-2012, 03:19 PM

Cody,

A pleasure.

An addendum, on reflection and FWIW, you may ask why - if my top 3 BL horses were 7-2-3 and the the 7 and 3 Morning Line in the neighbourhood of 3-1 while the #2 was ML 5-1 - did I not bet the #7 and #2 instead of the #7 and #3 which I actually bet.

Consult the PPs above, to see that the #2 is a recent Maiden graduate after many tries and the only line which makes it look ANY good is its Maiden Win (line 2, which I used), its best-ever rating. Normally I would like to rate recent Maidens from what they have done against other Winners and perhaps I should have here, given the result. Its last race against Claiming winners was a credible effort though against a slow pace, not an effort which would rate it well against the other potential Contenders.

When I came to decide which 2 of the Top 3 BL ranked horses would I bet, this recent Maiden status weighed in my decision making and I judged that between the 2 and 3, the numbers for the 3 were more founded in races against today's caliber of competition, and thus more reliable. I recall I left the #2 in the Primary Contender section, despite the afore-mentioned weaknesses, because it possessed the MOST LATE E/L rating of the Contenders and may be the one to collect against any tiring early pace. Perhaps an inconsistency on my part, in this instance.

FWIW.

Ted

09-25-2012, 03:19 PM	#21
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,252	Cody, A pleasure. An addendum, on reflection and FWIW, you may ask why - if my top 3 BL horses were 7-2-3 and the the 7 and 3 Morning Line in the neighbourhood of 3-1 while the #2 was ML 5-1 - did I not bet the #7 and #2 instead of the #7 and #3 which I actually bet. Consult the PPs above, to see that the #2 is a recent Maiden graduate after many tries and the only line which makes it look ANY good is its Maiden Win (line 2, which I used), its best-ever rating. Normally I would like to rate recent Maidens from what they have done against other Winners and perhaps I should have here, given the result. Its last race against Claiming winners was a credible effort though against a slow pace, not an effort which would rate it well against the other potential Contenders. When I came to decide which 2 of the Top 3 BL ranked horses would I bet, this recent Maiden status weighed in my decision making and I judged that between the 2 and 3, the numbers for the 3 were more founded in races against today's caliber of competition, and thus more reliable. I recall I left the #2 in the Primary Contender section, despite the afore-mentioned weaknesses, because it possessed the MOST LATE E/L rating of the Contenders and may be the one to collect against any tiring early pace. Perhaps an inconsistency on my part, in this instance. FWIW. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 09-25-2012 at 04:46 PM.