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Originally Posted by Turbulator
I thought long and hard about which pace line to use (if any) for this horse yesterday. In the end I decided that since he was 1 for 21, hadn't previously won after a long layoff, or is first ever race, and the fact he had been off 224 days--I just wouldn't rate him. He won.
If you do decide to rate him off off his fourth, fifth or sixth race back, throwing out the fourth back because of the wet-fast track--he rates right on top. If you use the W/F line he rates second.
Did anybody else play this race? How did/would you handle this horse?
Thanks,
Steve
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I picked up on this horse because the favorite looked shaky and the rest of the field even shakier.
The horse had a good jockey, good trainer, 4 workouts in the last month with a 5 furlong work and a short one showing speed further back in the series.
The 22 races scared me, but somebody must have thought something of the horse because it didn't show a run for a claim.
The main factor though was the generous odds and the fact that it looked better than this field back when it was running with problems.
When it came through late in the stretch I felt like a brilliant handicapper. Unfortunately, there were very few other moments of brilliance during the day.
Dick...