[gandalf380]

This is a tale of how to talk oneself out of a $35 winner. First time handicapping the race I came up with the #4 and #6. These were 16-1 and 25-1 respectively. They both had everything required to win at PID and I was prepared to bet $60 win on the #4 and $40 win on the #6. Then I realized that the 2 and the 7 were an uncoupled entry trained by a friend of mine and shipping from Finger Lakes. After all, they ran well on the track previously and that is a long way to go for just a workout. The 7 is left at the gate and the 2 runs unusally fast early and tires dramatically in the stretch. Look at the result. Lesson: believe the program and don't get sentimental.