Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Patrick,
You said I could show your updated result sheet with some interesting facts about your betting, so here are some observations:
Original Sheet - as played (25% Win and Place on 2 horses - always)
Attachment 28160
No Place Bets (alternative)
Attachment 28161
Analysis
You picked a fair number of races where lower priced favourites won (Woodbine), though you did catch a few nice prices. The new Summary section (original) sheet shows you you chose horses where the Place bets often made as much or more than the Win bets. You caught 3 Place bets on the horse which finished second, and in all cases, the Place mutuel was higher than the Win mutuel.
As a result, as originally bet, you made 6% ROI on your Win bets and 7% on your Place bets - effectively the same amount. That is why when you look at the alternate betting sheet - where you forgo all Place bets and split your bet 50% 50% over 2 horses - the return and ROI is effectively the same - 6%. With the horses you picked in these particular 18 races, there was no penalty to betting Place = no advantage to foregoing Place betting.
With Win betting only, 2 horses, your hit rate was 50% (longest losing streak=3), with Place betting (as actually bet, with those 3 extra Place bet hits, each greater then the Win mutuel) - 67% hit rate (longest losing streak 2).
Not too shabby! If you must bet or make picks in advance, either steer away from races where the Morning Line favourite looks to be one of your Top 2 picks. OR - do nothing,and wait for the inevitable longer- and mid- priced horses which pop up for you from time to time.
If you take your individual spreadsheet (just download it from the Monday weekly update post by Bill) - you will see that if you put ANY more money in the Win pool on your #1 horse (i.e. more than 50%) - your Bankroll starts to rise. Your #1 Win pick has been very powerful this month.
I wanted to show the various stats about individuals' betting practices, and to show how the results would change given alternate betting practices. It behooves us to study this and discover for ourselves (as opposed to any other person telling us what we should or shouldn't be doing) - how we could improve total bankroll, what the impact on consistency would be, what the losing streaks would be, which Pool was the source of our profit, which Pool a drag on profits.
If you know what reality is, you can do something to change it.
Ted |
Hello Ted,
Great analysis...every bit of it!
Your commentary gave me an idea.
Since the "basic" betting method of the methodology is wagering on two horses per race, with 60% of the bet on the low odds horse and 40% of the bet on the high odds horse, perhaps
you could comment on what odds could, would or should be acceptable on each horse.
As an example:
take no odds on the low odds horse that is less than 5/2
take no odds on the high odds horse that is less than 4/1
The reason I started with those odds is, should either horse win, your return would be "doubling" your bet. i.e.- $60 to win on a 5/2 would return $210 and $40 on a 4/1 would return $200.
In the event that your "hit rate" in a 20 race cycle is only .500, you would still realize a small profit on those exact odds.
The higher your hit rate, the more profit you would realize.
Naturally, the higher the odds the higher the profit, even where your hit rate does not exceed .500.
Perhaps setting acceptable odds would help in the choice of whether or not to pass a race.
What are your thoughts?