Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Consider restricting Place betting to top contenders going off at odds greater than 7-1, and THEN making any Place bet the same size or greater than your Win bet on that horse.
Ted
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As you can see above, Ted suggested betting “place” on horses going off at odds of 7/1 or greater, so that is where I started.
I took 2 consecutive years and counted how many horses went off at odds of 7/1 or greater. There were 369,123.
Then I counted how many of those horses won. That number was 17,005.
Then I counted how many of those horses “placed”, but DID NOT WIN. There were 26,277.
Then I calculated the “place price” for those horses that either won or placed. It came to $11.76
Then I calculated the “win price” for those horses that won. It came to $31.23.
Ok, so what does all this mean?
Of the total number of horses that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, 7.12% of those horses ran 2nd.
Of the total number of horses that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, 4.61% of those horses WON.
If you bet $2 “to place” on every horse that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, you would have LOST $429,128.
If you bet $2 “to WIN” on every horse that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, you would have LOST $207,179.
As you can see, betting to place returns a "hit rate" of 7.12 %
Betting to win returns a "hit rate" of 4.61%.....not a big difference. Why?
Because horses going off at these odds do not run “in the money” at a high rate. In most cases they either win or run out of the money. There are a few, as you can see, that do run 2nd without winning, but you have to ask yourself, "is it worth it?”
Where the difference really shows up is in the overall return.
Betting these horses "to place" returns a loss of $429,179
Betting the same horses "to win" returns a loss of $207,129….less than half the loss of just betting to place.
When it comes to betting win,place or show, there is no better bet than "WIN". Your "hit rate" may not be as high, but the "return rate" more than makes up for it!
Personally, I don't bet a horse unless it goes off at odds of 4/1 or higher and like everyone else, I see my share of horses that run 2nd, however, being aware of what I have explained here, I ONLY BET TO WIN.
I hope and trust that this will be of value to all those who take the time to read it.