Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath
Ted, Yes I thought about playing more races, but as soon as I play one more horse my bankroll would be reduced by 792.50, the net proceeds from my first winner. I felt that this would put me in serious hole and I felt that it would be nearly impossible to overcome the deficit.
Hope you see my dilema, and any suggestions would be appreciated.
rmath
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I do see your dilemma! How about conducting this 'thought experiment': pretend that you are beginning August's contest
today and have 15 days to bet another 20 races. I'm sure you would never consider 'I should not play in the August contest because I'll never hit another $23.80 Win mutuel like I did the first play in July'
Rather, consider that the slate is 'clean' and start again.
That's the
worst case. The
better case is that you go forward and actually hit several double digit mutuels, perhaps in less than another 20 races. Several people have done precisely that and naturally so can you, with your degree of skill. Look at
Gfnut the final day of the June Contest, who hit mutuels of $17.20, $22.60 and $19.60 with Win bets on each - $1195 profits in one day - at Hollywood. Look at
Barb Craven yesterday at WO with a $19.40 Win mutuel, though alas only a $5.70 Place mutuel
). These good hits
do happen, as can a string of simply random distribution of racing outcomes which allocates a bunch of Losses in a row your way. For both the foregoing reasons, playing onward makes great sense - just like it would in real life: after a bad day, we regroup and move forward with confidence in our long term ability - and things even out as your long term records show.
Consider another 'thought experiment' at the same time as the one above: pretend that your 1 month RDSS subscription prize is not in jeopardy - pretend it has been won and cannot be lost regardless of what happens over the rest of July. With the risk of losing that removed, how does this change your confidence level?
My only other suggestion going forward is - pay no attention to betting simply to obtain a good hit rate, i.e. making small Place bets which pay little or even lose money over all. Consider restricting Place betting to top contenders going off at odds greater than 7-1, and THEN making any Place bet the same size or greater than your Win bet on that horse.
The Contest is not about Place betting at all, but we have to keep the betting structures simple enough to score easily and not result in runaway winners from boxcar exotic hits. I believe that simple Win and Place betting (where prudent) form the foundation of all other good betting practices, and this is what I want to help teach people - with your assistance!
Best of luck and skill going forward, my friend.
yours,
Ted