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Old 05-22-2012, 06:13 PM   #18
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
Suppose you have chosen pacelines to the best of your and the software's ability. Your BL/BL screen shows (in top 3 rank order) horses going off at 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1. At 1 MTP the respective TX values are 1.5, 0.0 and 0.5 (ranked 3rd, 1st and 2nd respectively).

We ALWAYS want confirmation on how strong or weak a favourite is. In this scenario, I'm seeking a reason to bet against the 2-1 top ranked favourite. The non-confirmation of the TX to the Win Odds rank gives me another reason to bet against the favourite.

My experience is that TX changes less dramatically approaching post-time (and after) than does Win Odds. Also, when the TX rank does not confirm the Win Odds rank, that is useful.

I have used TX as info on first time or lightly raced horses (along with workout patterns). Among other scenarios.

For the record, Tote Xray is neither the Win/Show ratio (alone) nor is it new (i.e. the fruit of my own brain, though it has been in RDSS for 6 years.) Neither is the Sartin Methodology 'new'. 'Not new' does not equal 'not useful' ...

Ted
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