Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Ted...
It looks like your calculations on "points" are correct...
But the "running designation" needs to be looked at..
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Well, there's a question as to what you want a Running Style designation to tell you ... I would say, I want it to suggest how the horse will likely run
positionally at the various call points in TODAY's race, which must surely be a function of how it has done
recently.
Consider the horse's
March 23 race, after having run 1st or 2nd at the 2st call in the preceding 6 races. No disagreement, I'm sure, that he would be easily designated as E / Early going into that race. What about the
April 12 race? Anyone can have a bad day (i.e. the previous bad race) - probably everyone would agree to still treat it as a likely Early horse.
Then looking at its last race, after 2 bad races, do we still expect this horse to take the lead (i.e. going into the
April 28 race)? Or will we relegate it to mid-pack or worse, like its previous 2 races. Is it still an Early horse (in the matchup of April 28) or is it, as Lou says, a former Early who is now off form and won't be a part of the upfront pace, which analysis is why we even designate E horses in the first place?
So - going into today's race, with 3 duds under its belt, and running 4th of 11 and 3rd of 8 in its last 2 races, is it reasonable we should expect it to run as an Early horse today, and thus give it an E designation and cause us to spend mental time analysing the front runners including this horse? There were 4 other horses who showed more recent signs of taking the lead than this #1 horse.
As it turned out, this #1 horse won the race wire-to-wire. If it had lost again, should we have doggedly persisted in calling it an Early horse?
I don't know how to write a formula which will CONSISTENTLY predict which of a horse's former running styles will show up today - so, I use an average assessment over the entire PPs, with some emphasis on recent performance.
If someone can suggest an alternative which will be BROADLY applicable (i.e. treat this #1 as an Early today, but NOT a horse whose Early days seem far behind it) - then I am very willing to listen to a DETAILED approach.
I don't care that NewPace calls the horse Early, or BRIS. Look at a broad sample of NewPace so-called Early, or Late horses from a positional point of view and you will scratch your head.
If we had the capability to designate
current and
previous Running Style, I would certainly call this horse,
formerly Early,
currently Presser.
You would still have to decide, for whatever role Running Style plays in your analysis, which way it will run today given who it is facing.
Sometimes horses just jump up and do stuff.
Thoughts?
Ted