Thanks guys!
This was today's mandatory Derby prep Stakes race in the
RDSS Sartin/Bradshaw Memorial 'Road to the Roses' Contest at PaceAdvantage -
the Louisiana Derby.
I'm a little surprised more RDSS/Methodology/Matchup users did not hit it. The rationale for betting the
#12 Hero of Order was pretty simple: the
'Risen Star' Tandem with 6 other horses at Fairgrounds Feb 25. Except for the Tandem winner, who ran 4th in yesterday's Florida Derby, the 3 other principal actors return today. Simply put, at 99-1, I'm betting the Tandem will
reverse, as it sometimes does. The #12's effort in that race was an excellent effort.
Young 3 year olds of this calibre will either top out, decline or improve. The #12 came back swimmingly in its last race, fit as a fiddle. Will it still improve?
This is pretty much the
Bottom Line/Betting Line readout resulting from the RDSS 2.0 automatic paceline selection (Best of Last 3 Comparable).
If I believe the Tandem has a chance to reverse - that the 12 can improve against both the 1A and the 10 from that Feb 25 Tandem, then the rankings of the
1A are a proxy for the 12 - give it the same respect. I was shocked to see the 12 held at 30-1 Morning Line, and if I had actually seen the post time odds of 99-1 may have second guessed myself (I was cooking meat loaf)! No way the 1A is 3/2 and the 12 is 99-1
So my Contest bets were on the Tandem - no value in the #1A, some in the #10, lots in the #12, lots in an Exacta Box on the 3 of them.
I think the lesson for myself, and perhaps others is: sure - this scenario loses for whatever reasons, what - 5 times out of 10, or more? But if you want to be there when the breaks fall your way - you have to ante up. The
Tandem reversal is a classic concept of the Sartin Methodology, and when you apply value criteria to it - sometimes that's a lotta meatloaf ...
Nice Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta too ...
Bill - I think I might have inched up a bit in that Contest
Shockingly, you and Bill Lyster and I are still
knocking at the door in the PAIHL Team Contest!
Ted