[Ted Craven]

The TUP line 2 does get the winner, however, was this merely lucky?

A problem I regularly encounter is (and not just with TUP to SoCal) would you expect to use a TUP line (and for a horse who never succeeded anywhere better than TUP or EMD) unadjusted to represent how it was going to run at SA or HOL? By some measurements, TUP 6f runs generally about a second faster than either SA or HOL, yet no one believes TUP or EMD horses are on the same calibre planet as SoCal.

So my problem is if you accept this TUP line unadorned and take the win, and do the same in 9 other future races, you may overrate TUP horses 8 of 10 races taking low class but fast TUP lines in SoCal at face value. If you slow this horse up by anything over 1 second (manual adjust) she doesn't look so good.

In summary, I wonder whether Steve's inclination to use the last SA line rather than the 2nd TUP or 3rd EMD line was not the better choice - to lose this race but get a better handle on TUP to SoCal in general?

Any SoCal experts deal with this regularly?

Thanks,

Ted