Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Spot Play - OTE into 3 Matching "E"

PeteC · 01-10-2012, 03:15 PM

Hi Richie- these look like a couple of toughies, but here's what I came up with...

Gulfstream:
I put the 1,9, 10 and 13 in my e/p mix. I felt the 10 was the fastest of this group based on the pace this one has either set or run against in a number of races. Based on its last couple of races though I do not like this one to win the race. I will look for the fastest ote runners who can win from 5th / 6th position...

#3 has won from 5th twice and lost by a neck from 6th position. I used line 2 as the power line.

#4 has slow turf route pace lines compared to #3 and today's pace...OUT

#5 looked at line 2 as the power line which is slow too, OUT

#6 has won from 6th position, I looked at lines 7 and 8 as power lines.

#7 no really good turf line...OUT

#8 doesn't look as good as the 3 and 6 to me. I'd have to go way back to find a good finish against the 47-110 or so that 3 and 6 can handle. The more recent races don't justify doing that in my mind...OUT

#12 finished 2nd by 2 from 5th position, but all other races show this one likes to be in 2nd or 3rd position early, too close for today...OUT

#16 won from third, too close early today...OUT

I'm left with the 3 and the 6.

Tampa:

I focused in on the 6, 8 and 12 as the earlies. Looking for an OTE runner from 4th/5th against 22.8 46.9...

#1 power moved 4-1 (1C-2C) against a faster pace last time before fading to 4th. Won from 5th in line 10 at CRC. IN

#2 all route PL's and runs from far back. Not my type at 5.5 furlongs...OUT

#3 does best from 1st or 2nd position...OUT

#4 ugly

#5 a close 4th last out. Has won from 4th and was a close 2nd from 5th. IN

#7 ugly

#9 comes from way way back, mars and beyond. Not for me today.

#10 more ugly pacelines

I'm left with the 1 and the 5. These are hard to separate for me because of the different tracks they come from. I'll have to take them both...

01-10-2012, 03:15 PM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hi Richie- these look like a couple of toughies, but here's what I came up with... Gulfstream: I put the 1,9, 10 and 13 in my e/p mix. I felt the 10 was the fastest of this group based on the pace this one has either set or run against in a number of races. Based on its last couple of races though I do not like this one to win the race. I will look for the fastest ote runners who can win from 5th / 6th position... #3 has won from 5th twice and lost by a neck from 6th position. I used line 2 as the power line. #4 has slow turf route pace lines compared to #3 and today's pace...OUT #5 looked at line 2 as the power line which is slow too, OUT #6 has won from 6th position, I looked at lines 7 and 8 as power lines. #7 no really good turf line...OUT #8 doesn't look as good as the 3 and 6 to me. I'd have to go way back to find a good finish against the 47-110 or so that 3 and 6 can handle. The more recent races don't justify doing that in my mind...OUT #12 finished 2nd by 2 from 5th position, but all other races show this one likes to be in 2nd or 3rd position early, too close for today...OUT #16 won from third, too close early today...OUT I'm left with the 3 and the 6. Tampa: I focused in on the 6, 8 and 12 as the earlies. Looking for an OTE runner from 4th/5th against 22.8 46.9... #1 power moved 4-1 (1C-2C) against a faster pace last time before fading to 4th. Won from 5th in line 10 at CRC. IN #2 all route PL's and runs from far back. Not my type at 5.5 furlongs...OUT #3 does best from 1st or 2nd position...OUT #4 ugly #5 a close 4th last out. Has won from 4th and was a close 2nd from 5th. IN #7 ugly #9 comes from way way back, mars and beyond. Not for me today. #10 more ugly pacelines I'm left with the 1 and the 5. These are hard to separate for me because of the different tracks they come from. I'll have to take them both...