Quote:
Originally Posted by trotman
I placed this here rather than the handicapping section because I have a question to ask and that is "Why Adjust". The Hat didn't adjust, his followers didn't adjust, so "Why Adjust". If each race is a one off, I still remember the Hat explaining this then how can you adjust based on par times or whatever. The Hat's words stuck with me "Raw" cut and dried they are what they are and all this adjust this and that puts us further from the reality. Try working races with the raw numbers and facts and you will be surprized how close you are.
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Without getting too involved in a discussion about "adjust" or "not adjust", let me just offer the following.
I'm going to use an extreme example here for illustration purposes. Take a look at this thread from the "matcher's forum".
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7294
Based on raw times alone, there is no way to get the winner of this race. It would be dismissed out of hand as being "too slow".
Years ago, before slots, these "bull ring" tracks, like CT and DED, stayed pretty much to themselves. The horses were the lowest of caliber and the purses they ran for were next to nothing, so there was no reason for horses from regular tracks to ship into these bull rings unless the horse became crippled and there was no where else the horse could compete. Likewise, horses from these bull ring tracks did not dare to ship to a regular track as they just couldn't compete there.
However, today, with these bull ring tracks having slots and higher purses, coupled with the decline of stock at most tracks, the horses from these bull ring tracks can and do ship to regular tracks and in some instances they can compete. The problem is, bull ring tracks have slower times. It is just the nature of the bull ring track as it is 6 furlongs in circumference as compared to the 1 mile circumference of most tracks.
Where there are horses shipping in to a bull ring track from regular tracks, you have the same problem in reverse. These shippers are NOT going to run the faster times you see in their PP's. The smaller track will take care of that. So going in either direction, adjustments are necessary.
I have been matching horses for over 40 years, albeit not the way "Hat" taught it. When I first started in handicapping, horses ran "on a circuit". For me, that meant Monmouth, Garden State and Atlantic City. In New York, that meant Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct. In Maryland it meant Pimlico, Laurel and Bowie. And, of course, in southern California, it meant Del Mar, Hollywood and Santa Anita, just to mention a few.
My point here is, the same horses ran on these circuits. When one track closed, one of the others opened and the horses just moved. The surfaces were all the same in those days, just turf or dirt and the times could be matched regardless of which track the lines were from. Other than southern California, today it is a lot different. Of course now Santa Anita has gone back to a dirt surface where Hollywood and Del Mar are still on artificial surfaces, so that present s bit of a problem.
The long and the short of it is, today I believe adjustments are more necessary than there were in the "good old days" and I mean "good old days" sincerely.
Anyway, that's my take on it.