Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
Doc would burn and destroy the paceline manual if he felt best of the last three was
better than what Mike posted,But He used Best of the last three and his guidelines moved away from what is "RIGHT" to what worked for most people who knew not as much as guys like Mike or FTL. Please test for your self which ever way is best for you
Guys like Mike and FTL may approach how they wager, the amount they wager and how often they can wager very different than you
So you need to find what works best for you
GS
Bill
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Truer words have yet to be spoken.
I started with the "best of the last three appropriate races" and the two-horse wagering plan. If I was lucky, I broke even. But I kept records of what I thought was the likelier horse of the two. I was right more often than not, so I decided to listen to my own inner voice and cut back to one wager per race.
I also reworked races, looking for commonalities for the price horses and it came down to one of those three races being in the horse's top three perceptor scores. So, I added that to my method, using a second or third ranked rating to allow me to go back even further to the top-rated perceptor score if it fell within four points of the initial race in speed rating.
I combine that procedure with my decision model and look for those indicators that achieve 40% or more winners. A 5/2 minimum odds acceptance further eliminates races in which to wager.
Right now, I can't find a winner in route races on the inner dirt track, the stats don't work in my favor. But for six furlong races for winners, age 3+, I'm doing quite nicely - just caught the first and second at AQU today. I don't complicate things with exotic wagers either, my focus is entirely on one race at a time and one winner at a time.
So, to the OP I say let the guidelines be just that. A guide. Look at it as a road map, there's more than one way to get to your destination, you have to sample the various routes before you find the one that pleases you the most.