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Nice presentation, Bill.
Personally, I don't like to use software for 2YO races. Whoever wins is going to run something they've never run before. So, using pace anlaysis for what's already happened, but won't happen today is misleading, at least that's been my experience.
Quinn said to bet the horse that's run the fastest in 2YO races. That would be #5 Tip Your Hat. He's 10-1. What I don't like is the fact that she won her MCL32K convincingly by 10 3/4 lengths, but then they got over ambitious and entered her in a stakes race where she got trounced. It takes a long time to get over a broken spirit; sometimes they never do. You can ruin a horse doing that. They gave her three months off after that and she ran well on her return. That might be enough time. But will she ever get back to what she ran breaking her maiden? I don't know, but at 10-1 I tend to be forgiving.
The probable favorite is #1 Belle of the Nile. She's done nothing wrong and has only gone forward. You're supposed to keep betting them to go forward until they show you they can't anymore. She's tough, but 2-1 isn't very tasty. A legitimate favorite.
#2 Lil' Sasha has an 0-2 pattern which is usually followed by an X. No thanks, especially at 9/2. I'd need at least 10-1 to consider her.
#3 Muttak Bay made a big jump from her initial outing to her second race. Then she ran the same in her third out. Nothing wrong with her, but she's not terribly fast and would need to improve quite a bit to win today. 8-1 isn't enough for me.
#4 The Queen's Reign broke her maiden first out. That's it, her only race. Who knows what she'll do? She didn't run fast enough to win today, but she's certainly eligible to improve. Fairlie is adding bandages and he's 24% with that angle, 57% in the money. At 15-1 she's a must use in exotics.
#6 Don'tgetmadalexis looks ready to explode. She could easily win today. She's legitimate, but 5/2. So, in this race we've already got two legitimate favorites. *gulp*
#7 Theatre Queen is another gal that's never done anything wrong, going forward every race. Trainer deGaines is 20% moving up in class and 20% with Jesse Cambell . She's a live horse at 12-1.
#8 Sapphire Star ran very well first out winning by five lengths. She hasn't repeated that, but is rounding to form. 6-1 might be a tad' on the short side for her.
In summary this isn't a great betting race. You've got two short priced horses that have every reason to win. On the other hand they are 2YOs and anything can happen, plus there are a couple of price horses that could score.
I might bet small on a couple of long ones, but definitely won't be "sending it in" here.
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