Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath
I now have a total of 200 races, that I have run thru RDSS2.
Top vdc 83
2nd vdc 42
3rd vdc 27
4th vdc 20
total vdc top 4: 172 wins with 136 exactas in top 4
New Pace:
E 1: 53
E 2 :26
L1 : 43
L2 : 29
total 151 wins with 96 exactas.
I made no preliminary eliminations for any reason. I sorted the contenders after picking the best of last 3 comparable pacelines using the line scores to get it down to the final 5. From these I eliminated any horse with a 5 vdc rating. This eliminated 7 wins and 19 exactas.
There were 11 wins in New Pace that were eliminated by the use of line scores. One at 53.80, 7 were between 20.00 and 26.60, and 3 were to low to bet.
I will let each of you draw your own conclusions from these findings.
rmath
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Hi Rich,
Much thanks for the ongoing testing. I was amazed, although maybe I shouldn't have been, by the similarity of the VDC results with those I got for TE a couple of years ago in a 1200-race survey. Although these two factors are not completely correlated, I'm beginning to believe the correlation is much closer than I had realized. Also, VDC appears to have slightly better ordinality (higher-ranked horses win more often than lower) than TE. For example, both produced a combined win of about 60% for the top two places, but VDC divides them .41,.21, where TE (at least in my survey) had them .37, .25. If the average mutuel holds at $7.48, this is better than the $7.00 I found for TE. Also, if this stat holds up over a larger sample of races, it would mean a flat-bet profit against all races for VDC #1 - pretty mind-blowing.
The results for NP are also similar to what Bill Lyster and others have posted.
Just a couple of questions: re filters, were there really no filters used to test either of these methods? That's what it sounds like.
Also, you say you used the line scores to sort out the top 5 for VDC, and then chose the 'best' 3 pacelines. Was this mechanical or was some judgement involved. If it was mechanical, what was the selection factor?
Re the 3/1 and 3/2 odds for grouping winners, what is the significance of using these particular odds?
Thanks again for all your work.
Cheers,
B Jennet