Originally Posted by For The Lead
I want to talk about a specific condition. In abbreviated form it is known as "N1X" or "NW1" or "NW1X. In its' long form, it is "NON WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING". Sometimes it is expanded to include "State Bred" races, but in its' basic form it is what was previously stated. Ok, so exactly "what" does this mean?
It means the ONLY way a horse can be eligible to run in this race is if it has ONLY beat a field of maidens OR a field or "FIELDS" (that's plural) of claiming races. In other words, a horse could have won 100 races, as long as they were only claiming races, and still be eligible for this race.
OK, let's start with the first part of the condition, non winners of a race other than maiden. So every horse in this race has beat a field of maidens. Alright, that means anything from the lowliest maiden claimer all the way up to and including a MSW (maiden special weight ) race. Horses that broke their maiden in a maiden claiming race are easier to gauge, since, "in general", they are worth about one half of the value of the race in which they broke their maiden when they are entered into an "open" claiming race. In other words, a horse that breaks its' maiden in a $10,000 maiden claimer can be expected to perform well at $5,000 in an "open" claiming race. Horses that broke their maiden in a maiden special weight (MSW) race, however, are another story.
When going up against 3yo & older, I don't quibble too much with being competitive at around 50% of their MCL price in open claiming.
When going up against 3yo only or in rare instances 2 yo only claimers, they are competitive in races with a claiming price equal to their maiden claiming price.
What is the "primary reason" for a horse being entered into a maiden special weight (MSW) race? Right. They owner doesn't want to take a chance on the horse being claimed away from him. He "thinks" he has a horse of some value. Many times these thoughts are mis-guided and the horse ends up being one of those 1 for 20 horses entered into a NW1X. In other words, as a handicapper, one has no idea at what level this horse can compete, since it has never beat anything other than a field of maidens, which brings me to the second part of the condition, the "or claiming" part.
As I said above, a horse that has only run in claiming races, at any level from $3,500 claiming races to $100,000 claiming races and won them, is eligible to run in this race. Now the writer above has indicated that in a NW1X race on the turf, one should look for...
"fit the conditions well that have shown something on the turf"
"might have some turf breeding"
"a good turf trainer"
"Preferably have shown something at N1X or are just coming off a straight maiden win, least preference to claimers"
OK, I'll take these one at a time.
1 - a horse that "fit the conditions well that have shown something on the turf". I have to assume "fitting the condition well" meant other NW1X races and that "showing something" meant...
Early speed and faded?
Closed to run 2nd or 3rd?
They certainly did not win or they couldn't be in this race today.
You stated 2 possibilities - there are others. If they won and got dq'd, they could certainly run today, but I'm sure you know that.
2 - "might have some turf breeding". Maybe it has turf breeding and maybe it doesn't. If "the horse" won't run well on the turf, does the breeding really matter?
It absolutely matters. There are many strong statistical plays 1st and/or 2nd time on turf based on breeding. They are even stronger matching specific sires with specific turf courses. Most of these N1X races don't have a ton of horses with consistent turf experience.
3 - "a good turf trainer". Is there such a thing as a good turf trainer? Or are there trainers that have horses that like running on the turf and therefore run good on the turf?
My belief is there are good turf trainers that know how to train specifically for the turf. I will agree with you that they probably also have stock that is suited to do well on the turf.
4 - "Preferably have shown something at N1X or are just coming off a straight maiden win, least preference to claimers". The first part of this has already been addressed in number 1 above. As to the second part, if a horse is coming off a maiden win and that win was in the horses debut race or even its' second or third lifetime race and that winning race was on the turf, yes, it is worth looking at. However, if the horse "finally" broke its' maiden after many, many attempts, all that says is, it finally found a field it could beat because the field was that bad.
I'm not talking about maidens who took 10 races to break it. I'm talking about lightly raced maidens from solid barns. I have also seen horse that took 15 races to break their maiden and now all of a sudden "get it" - and yes, they win their 1st n1x try at long odds.
5 - finally we come to "least preference to claimers". I'm not sure if the writer meant lest preference to claimers that are coming off a maiden win or claimers in general, so I'm just going to write this as though the write meant "in general".
In a NW1X (non winners of a race other than maiden or claiming) I don't care if it is on dirt, poly or turf, the first thing to look for is a "successful" horse. What is a successful horse? A horse that has demonstrated it can win races. In a NW1X this can ONLY be a claiming horse. Consider this, a horse that has only beat a field of maidens has not yet established its' class level. What has it beat? Only maidens.
If you are looking at a race with a NW1X condition, be it on the turf or dirt, and you see a horse with 10 wins, 5 on the dirt and 5 on the turf, in a field where the rest of the horses are "1 for something", which horse is the most successful? This is the horse I would look at first. Then I would have to make the decision of whether or not the other "1 for" horses can beat it. Class really isn't an issue in these races, for the most part. Like I said, the horses that are "1 for" have not established their class level. They are repeatidly entered into a NW1X race because the owner is concerned that he will lose his horse via the claiming box if he drops the horse into a claiming race, so they just keep running 2nd, 3rd or even out of the money and burning up the money bet on them. Many times these horses are the favorite or 2nd choice or 3rd choice and are of no value. Evaluate the claiming horse with the wins. Remember, these wins could be for $3,500, $7,500, $12,500, $20,000 or $50,000. What is better? A "1 for" that can't beat any field of horses or a a claimer that demonstrate it can beat various levels of competition?
Again, I don't know what circuit you play in, but in a N1X on a major circuit, in most cases, the claimer with multiple wins will not win the N1X race. The race will be won by either a lightly raced horse who has previously run well at the level, a maiden winner who steps up and runs well, or a state bred n1X winner who just ran a good race or 2 at the open level. I could care less if you come in with 10 wins at 16000n2l.
The claimer that stands a chance is one who just won or ran very strongly at a C32 or C40 level, at least for SoCal. They do win on occasion but they typically tend to finish 2nd. A good example was the 8th at DMR on Sunday. While this race is actually an optional claimer N1X, the same principles hold.
Every reader will come to their own conclusion.
You are certainly entitled to yours
My conclusion is, horses that demonstrate they can win races are better than those that demonstrate they cannot.
Agree with you completely once you start dealing with 3yo & older or 4yo & older conditions
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